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Veteran Contributor

KC wheat

Down 60 cents from the high. Guess that was the one chance to lock in a price higher than insurance price. 0.40" of rain. Maybe it will be an early Easter miracle and resurrect the wheat that froze out, blew out, or never came up to start with!!
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8 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: KC wheat

In the new world market format......production has to stop and then we will be dumb enough to think we can buy it and save the midwest for future dynasties, because the world will always have wheat, and corn and beans and all that money can buy.  Because we can print money and forget every other skill we once had.

 

 

https://twitter.com/drewbrands44/status/975120991763484673?s=12

 

If you can see this you know why we need the reality of consequences.

this poor guy could be in his twenties, but we see people in their 60's and in congress doing similar things.

 

Smiley Happy

 

 We should license or require a background check for the purchase of windows....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: KC wheat

Maybe I was wrong (and seems I'm wrong more
And more all the time)
But I look at the wheat market, I didn't do anything,
Now it's dropped 70 cents....but I am looking
At the fundamentals. Our fields and neighbors don't
Look good. Little if any rain for some time, crop
Conditions are poor and two climatologist are
Not giving us any hope. Sure we might get
Half an inch, but ground is so dry it will
Be gone in no time.
So did I make a mistake, maybe, but from
All the signs I see, things should be different

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Veteran Advisor

Re: KC wheat

Sw, a question, am I the guy running off with
The purse, or am I the woman that just had
My purse taken.
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Honored Advisor

Re: KC wheat

Video----It takes a minute to load but it is a spat between him and her.  He gets mad and tries to jam his head through that plate glass window.  Window flexes and drops him to the ground....

He gets up and yells "You don't listen to me.  I just want you to listen to me" as they walk through the crowd they just ranted in front of.

 

IMO......... We have a multitude of people that demand to be listened to.  But very few that have the wisdom to speak. And even fewer who will actually listen to what is said.

 

 

Yet we all need to share ideas to learn.   

 

Are we learning........ or just repeating ?????     Smiley Happy

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Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: KC wheat

I grow corn and soybeans, no wheat, so I won't pretend to know what production costs are or anything.  But I sold almost everything in my bins and about a quarter of my insurance-protected bushels during the last rally.  My experience has been that we get at most one rally per year.  This year it came early, so there was still a lot of carry in the corn market, so good prices at the ethanol plant for July, August, new crop, and July 2019 corn. If we get another rally thins summer, I won't have much to sell - just remaining insurance protected new crop, but the rally will have to exceed the last one by enough to overcome the lower carry as we get closer to harvest. I told the elevator manager when I signed the contract "I hope these are the cheapest bushels I sell this year."

 

IMO, when the market gives you a rally, you have to sell SOMETHING.  Otherwise eventually you'll have to sell to make payments or whatever and you'll just be a price-taker.

Senior Contributor

Re: KC wheat

The markets seem to be very fragile.  It seems a little rain in Kansas has spooked the markets.

Still on the side lines.  

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Senior Contributor

Re: KC wheat

I made a sale of HRSW on the last uptick, but in hindsite not enough. Usually sell in lots on upticks, guess should have sold a couple. My bad. Charting local price since January I felt we had another period of strength coming up but with today’s action, rain in the plains(I know, not enough but the market doesn’t care cause it moisture) and with burdensome stocks worldwide we could be SOL. Russia and European Union are kicking it with monster yields and ability to move product to some of our markets. I don’t see much improvement until they have a major weather induced crop disaster. Close the hatches, limit expenditures, pinch pennies until old Abe squeals and become very chumy with your banker man. It’s a bummer.
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Honored Advisor

Re: KC wheat

Erik, that sounds wise.... 

 

Wheat works similar except for one thing ...... You may only get 40% of the crop you plan.

 

COP is just a a big problem across the board , not just agriculture. ..... Everything we do will cost more nearly every year.  From elcheapo and Hobby's health insurance to transportation and parts.  

Property taxes --- interest rates.... inflation.

 

when we are talking corn yields above trend line to show some green ..... that just isn't going to happen consistantly for everybody and worst of all........ there is not a long line of "wanta be" farmers coming on.  We have built agriculture on folks who were willing to work for much less annual income that average in exchange for eventual estate value....

"The worlds educated poor".   

We have made it  too much of a long shot, if not impossible.

 

 

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