Key Nations Exportable Supply Review
Based on the July 12th USDA report, the fundamental situation at the end of the 2018/2019 marketing year shows the following:
CORN - Ending days of supply for the nations of USA, Brazil, Argentina, EU and the Ukraine project to fall to 20.4 days which is below the 21.1 day figure in the 2013/2014 marketing year when the average cash price of corn in the U.S. was $4.46 according to the USDA report.
WHEAT is in a similar situation and does not provide a buffer for the low corn exportable stocks as it is projected to fall to 24.86 days vs. a figure of 26.33 days in 2013/2014. The nations I included in the Wheat review are the USA, Russia, Canada, the EU, Ukraine and Australia.
This tells me that we could see much higher prices on corn than the current futures indicate from a purely fundamental standpoint.
Other outside market factors are also in play such as tariffs, currency prices and the dollar but thought this might be of interest.