cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
CitiFarmer
Veteran Contributor

Key Nations Exportable Supply Review

Based on the July 12th USDA report, the fundamental situation at the end of the 2018/2019 marketing year shows the following:

CORN - Ending days of supply for the nations of USA, Brazil, Argentina, EU and the Ukraine project to fall to 20.4 days which is below the 21.1 day figure in the 2013/2014 marketing year when the average cash price of corn in the U.S. was $4.46 according to the USDA report.

WHEAT is in a similar situation and does not provide a buffer for the low corn exportable stocks as it is projected to fall to 24.86 days vs. a figure of 26.33 days in 2013/2014. The nations I included in the Wheat review are the USA, Russia, Canada, the EU, Ukraine and Australia.

This tells me that we could see much higher prices on corn than the current futures indicate from a purely fundamental standpoint.

Other outside market factors are also in play such as tariffs, currency prices and the dollar but thought this might be of interest.

0 Kudos
8 Replies
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: Key Nations Exportable Supply Review

Good post, CitiFarmer.

0 Kudos
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Key Nations Exportable Supply Review

Ending  Days  of  supply  -  21  -  wow 

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Key Nations Exportable Supply Review

So when do we run out ?

You would think we would have a significant
Rally

To what level do we have to get to ?

3 day ??
0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Key Nations Exportable Supply Review

Unmentioned. KS. Heat/dry stressed beans easy to find in most areas of KS.
Also weed problems look prominent.
0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Key Nations Exportable Supply Review

The talkers don’t mention the wheat crop. It was that bad.
0 Kudos
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Key Nations Exportable Supply Review

SPOT   ON  -  SW   about  the   chatter  -  lite  years  from  a  reality  check  -  maybe  ?  

0 Kudos
nutlug
Veteran Contributor

Re: Key Nations Exportable Supply Review

And now that the wheat is in the elevator the basis creeps wider. Not unexpected just frustrating. Finally getting a futured price rally and cash price is being dragged down by widening basis
0 Kudos
Whitesand_Farms
Veteran Contributor

Re: Key Nations Exportable Supply Review

As long as there's a one day supply the markets won't pay much for the grain. I've marketed with my heart many times thinking because a poor crop prices will rise only to sell for nothing. We've put up millions of bushels of storage to hold onto the grain thinking we can get more for the grain later in the year only to have these companies can get the grain for nothing with free storage. They knew farmers were holding a lot of old crop and new crop will be coming in soon so they tanked the price and stole a lot of grain in the last month when most farmers thought the price had to go up. Every time we think prices are going to skyrocket the markets always find an excuse to tank the price; trade war with China, brexit, Greece defaulting on its loan to the EU. Whenever they run out of bearish news about bumper crops and know the crop around the world is"below trend" they come up with some cockamamie excuse to sink the markets after they tease us with a little price rise only to see that siphoned away with a rising basis. Let's face it they will never pay what the grain is worth now that nobody actually had to take physical contact of the grain and it's all done on paper with forward contracts, futures, target prices etc.