cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
jec22
Veteran Advisor

Elcheap

I love a good debate.

 

The ACA reminds me of that lemon car I have owned.  Would have been better to give it away than to 'fix' it.

 

If the first line of the new law was that the goverment employees had to have the same insurance offered to the rest under the ACA plan, that would be a start, and they would have the same high deductables. Then they might tackle out of control drug costs, etc.

 

BUT,  your points on Trump might be valid,  BUT, I have been stabbed in the back most in life by people that were 'nice' and said all the 'right' things.

 

For a change of topic, the markets are open, and corn is up a penny, so I take that. Wheat up 2, beans up 1.

 

 

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Kip Tom up the elevator at Trump Tower

agreed.

 

looking at my grains.com screen, your right on the slight upwards move

 

The bean market is down, on a supposed 900,000 tonne cancellation.........now i'm confused........we are told a 900,000 tonne

cancellation......but to where we are not told............but.............if you look at a report dated in nov of this past year in THIS

forum......ironic, the same figure is listed..........

 

www.agriculture.com/t5/Marketing/Floor-Talk-November-11/td-p/645778

 

hmmmmm.........rather odd the same amount.

 

if it is from that incident, it's taken long enough to impact the market.

 

i found it interesting how we see a story, how one side of a county is flooding, and the other is burning......it was supposed to have

a significant impact on the soybean production in SA

 

what does the "token" liberal on this forum think on markets.......

 

wheat......going to be half the production we had from last year in US......between a 30% or more cut in planted acres, and

a broad area of winter wheat poduction in trouble, with dry weather, below 0 temps, and crop conditions dropping 15%........

uesed to = BULLISH........but i forget.......wheat is wheat.......we have plenty of wheat....we have all these piles of wheat

(who's quality is going down hill each day)........we'll go down until one of the programs notices that the stoc's have changed

direction, we have broken multi days in a row 50 and 100 day averages, and "we've went as far as we can, so now need

to go the other way.....remember we make no money if the market just goes sideways...........

 

 

corn.........popcorn would have been proud of the report how we had a record run of still production......interesting, rather than

seeing stock grow, they stayed the same.......tells me, it's going somewhere........and we can't be drinking that much !!!

as our learned colleague to the southwest has commented, the squeezings from the stills have become quite popular

in cattlefeeding, replacing many of the things we used to use........

The record inventory....well we're doing a dam good job of eating (or brewing) thru it....corn has many uses, which is advantagous

over wheat.......

i see on the horizon, the realization, that while we have huge crops, we are using a huge amount.....and due to the economics

(seed corn aprox $300 a bag..#1 or more of N per bu of production, chem and the like).....with the lowly prices of corn

(i believe the insurance base price was set at 4.15)....run the numbers.....not too good.......we are going to need a bigger

carrot to get more planted......but looking even further over the horizon.......wx maps are pointing to perhaps a dryer and warmer

year......which should indicate a lower production..........that should give us a boost at sometime..............BUT....remember "things

are different now"..........it's perception that counts............the only thing they can see are those "piles"..........((not remembering

to check arial photos over the past several years...........

kind of like.....the most ugly girl in town looks like a 10 to a sailor who's been out to sea for a year.....appearce changes from your

angle of view.

 

soybeans.....everyone loves beans.......beans can be used for so many things, from human feed, to cattle, hog, chicken, fish feed, to

making biodiseal.......if you want an ideal plant....that's it........the problem is, everyone else has figured that out.

with china slightly growing, they longer want tufu for breakfast, dinner, supper and a snack here and there.....but like all of us,

we would like steak, but eat what we can afford.

demand for beans is huge........but so is the production......and our problem is SA......they can raise them as good as us, but

they don't have as good of a export system as we do........

soybeans problem....too much of a good thing.......beans, in el cheapo's computer, is the least cost crop....cheap seed, a pre and

run over with some post, a little phos, and about oct 1 or earlier you go out and cut.......even a washington congressmen could do it !!

thats's the problem....we could see the piles get bigger..............BUT......again, the wx is showing dry warm wx.......which might

make a smaller crop.........but....a little bird told me, if things dont get better in wheat country, could be alot of double crop

beans.......while not big yeilders.....alot of acres.....if it looks like a chance to get a crop......some might have consider milo,

but that little issue of sugar cane aphid has people running for the hills.....sunflowers......used to be, but after a bag of

seed went over $300 a bag, killed that, plus alot chem programs will prevent it........

moral of the story.....as steve winwood sang...."when you see a chance take it".......get your costs figured out, watch the market,

if we see wheat and corn going up, they will drag their ugly sister along, and when you see a price you can live with, somehow

lock it in (people smarter than me on here how to do that).......but......maybe somehow keep the door open enough so if things

really go down hill with the weather, somehow you can capture part of it.........as confucius say "better to take average looking girl

to lake than go yourself"..........

 

@copyright el cheapo 2017

0 Kudos
jec22
Veteran Advisor

Elcheap no need to copyright that text,

I'm a speed reader and it was to long to keep me reading.   think 140 characters, or 240 if you use ....

 

Like this:

Market summary, : It is raining in Argentina.

 

 

Or this,

Yes, 20 trillion in debt is a problem, a big problem.

 

 

 

But then, you did use ... a lot ....  like an never ending....Trump....tweet

 

 

 

 

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Elcheap no need to copyright that text,

ADHD Smiley Happy

0 Kudos
rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Jec , on the depression

I know that story, too, and am proud of my ancestors that stuck it out. My late father

told me about how the banker would come out to "visit" when he was a young boy

and the real purpose was to check and see if my grandparents were spending any of

the bank's money on furniture, etc. They were under water like just about everyone

else in the neighborhood, but the one thing that saved them was an inheritance my

grandmother had banked in a savings account and not spent on furniture, a car, etc.

It ended up being a few months of nursing home expense before she died as she

never did spend it and it hardly grew with the low rates bank pay on savings, but it

really saved the family farm as it was a character statement that these were people

that did not squander things and the banker did not sell them out.

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: This post won't stay here long

BA an undiniably good visual.

 

Nox   there is a rediculous reality to the folks who have a heavy load stacked on the left side.  They continue to blow a tire over things like "conflict of interest" when in fact they can't see the difference between "qualifications for a job" and "conflict of interest"........ Well that's not accurate..... lets try this.... the heavy lefties do know the difference but act like they don't to keep unqualified politicians in jobs.

 

Farming in three countries is probably a base for being "qualified" for the job.  It is not a conflict of interest to have a lot of experience in the profession being regulated.---.....................

 

If buying monsanto seed becomes a requirement for fsa participation then the Ag. Secretary may bave a conflict of interest if he hasn't divested.  But in the lefty world if the monsanto seed company does good work for the environment and donates to the election of the right candidates the conflict of interest will be considered expunged.

 

The first step to ending the "Government by donation" is to elect and appoint qualified people who can buy their own lunch.

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Jec , on the depression

I appreciate those comments on farm history more than I say.........

 

If a farm has endured for decades it has lived through very difficult times economically.

 And if there has been a couple of "retirements" and changes of management, the Government that regulates and taxes presents no favors to the farm trying to make those generational changes.

 

Finally if those two issues happen to coincide in a timely fashion.............. we loose.

 

It is a tough game but an honorable one.

0 Kudos
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: This post won't stay here long

Just a reminder that's what my city cousins think when they the read   Evironmental Working Group  website farm payments  -  just  saying --- 

0 Kudos
jec22
Veteran Advisor

K-289

And your city cousins would be correct.  Though the payments are used as a stick also to control farming practices to help conservation, somewhat effective part of the time.  I can imagine what they think when they see all the equipment, homes, vacations that many in the ag community enjoy and then know they are getting government payments.  (Though there are many of farm wives and or farmers that contribute with off farm income that make some of those things possible.) My biggest complaint, is those farm programs have given the large producer an even bigger advance over the smaller one; i.e.; there is no cap on crop insurance subsidies.

Note what I thought the first question Trump would ask his AG nominees.

Don't take these comments as that I am against big farmers, I have found that there are good ones among the big, medium, and small.  There are also rotten ones among the big, medium, and small. Fortunate to have a lot more good ones around me than bad.

An example. I am sure in good faith the NRCS has cost share for flying on cover crops late summer. All good intentions.  But, new studies are showing that high seeding rates of cover crop (which are required for cost share) actually may hurt yield by tying up nutrients. So, if you just spread a lower rate and pay for it yourself, probably not all that much difference in cost, and could be a big difference in yield. Time will tell. 

Don't get me wrong, there are some programs out there that have worked well like beginning farm loans.

Hobby hammering on us to pocket the money from bins instead of giving it to the middle man is a good place to start.  And yes, there is a government program for that Smiley Happy

 

 

0 Kudos
hardnox
Advisor

Re: Jec , on the depression

Keep dissembling like that and Kellyanne should be worried about competition for her job. Bottom line- rules don't apply to Good People who have been so sorely burdened.

 

Trumpaholics have no idea (and no interest in knowing) about, for instance, how Berlusconi destroyed Italy with his crony corruption.

 

They "just know" that those Eyetalians are lazy and feckless, and not like we Free Market John Galts.

 

Much of The Folk are deeply and perhaps fatally misinformed about the nature of things.

0 Kudos