cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Contributor

Kluis Comments 12/14

 

Good morning!
I'm watching today to see if January soybeans can post a second consecutive higher close above $13.00 which would open  the door for a test of contract highs. Between now and the end of the year I do expect commodity funds to liquidate some of their long term corn soybean and wheat positions. I will report in my comments tomorrow on what our weather man, DT, says tonight in our webinar.

Al

 

0 Kudos
6 Replies
Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/14

Al..... Don't you think that the only hope today for the bear is that the funds become sellers?...... It appears today that the farmer has locked the bin doors unless these markets rally to a higher level...... i do not see a lot of selling unless it is funds......p-oed

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/14

Farmers don't lock the bin doors.  Many still use DP....think they would have learned their lesson last summer...grains never rallied until the DP period was over...endusers knew they had to sell and it was like looking at all the other players hands in a game of poker.  Bean basis is narrowing,  corn also.  The hog and cattle numbers will work with these grain prices.  And it don't rain in Argentina.  The SE district of IA has a corn yield of 98 bu/a.  Crop adjuster said that may be 10 bu/a too high.  I am kinda of wondering, if we raise the best corn crop ever in 2011, where will the floor be?

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/14

around 3.00 futures price like it always hits and bounces at.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/14

If the majority of farmers have locked the bin doors, the odds are that they are wrong.

0 Kudos
Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/14

Thanks for your questions and comments. Here are my thoughts - the fundamentals are bullish and prices keep moving higher - but a crash in the Euro and a hard rally in the US dollar will put all commodity prices under pressure . It also appears that China is slowing down on buying soybeans - you need to feed a bull every day, and we need to keep the weather problems growing in Argentina to keep prices moving higher. A weekly close above $13.00 in January soybeans and above $5.90 in March corn will be positive into next week.

 

I agree with the comments about DP contracts - I do not like them for a variety of legal and marketing reasons - it does not make sense to give away the grain and then ask later on what they will pay for it. In many elevators farmers will hold 70% + until the last day - which is usually one of the worst times to sell.

 

As far as farmers having the bin doors shut - short term bullish to basis - long term this can be negative for prices and profits. Hopefully farmers have the bin doors closed but also have offers in above the market where they will make additional sales. If a lot of offers are placed above the market say 20 cents in corn and 40 to 50 cents in soybeans those offers are like a magnet for prices.

 

I still think we could have a sell off into year end as funds and fund managers cash in at the end of the quarter and the end of the year and then a lot of farmer selling will develop in early January when farmers get into the new tax year. Stay disciplined and have offers in place- these are some excellent price levels to be making sales at, and in most areas basis levels have pulled in to respectable levels.

 

AL

0 Kudos
Highlighted

Re: Kluis Comments 12/14

University of Illinois, USA to popularize soybean cultivation in India. ... made India the 5th largest producer of soybean in the world today. ..Thank you.

_______________

Tom.

[link=dating sites]http://www.casualdate.net.au[/link]

0 Kudos