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Contributor

Kluis Comments 12/22

Good afternoon!

 

This was another good rally day in the grain markets with nearby corn posting a new high close on the daily and weekly continuation charts. Corn, soybeans are overbought and if you look at the chart since the lows last June you will see that the rallies have usually been 25 to 27 days up and tomorrow is 27 days up from the late November low. Yes I know it is dry in Argentina and the news is really bullish – but I am very willing to make some additional cash sales on this rally to get some profits locked in before the funds start selling into year end. The bears had Thanksgiving and the bulls are having Christmas and pigs get slaughtered.   

 

-Al

 

 

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7 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/22

Pigs indeed do get slaughtered..........it appears equities market cleaned up year end back in late November and is already in January mode.......is the grain trade in the same boat and we trade bullish right up until Jan report????

 

Then sell off some in that Jan-Feb range......then reload for spring acre battle that IMO will not matter as we need 92-93M corn and 81-82M soya acres to make this thing work.......and they are not there.....not even close when wheat acres are up and cotton will certainly buy at least 2 maybe closer 3-4M acres.......

 

Guys that plant corn ("I" states) and make money at it will plant corn and a lot of it, but still at or under 91M.....guys that soya because it fits their weather pattern and soil will plant a lot of it, but still at or under 80M.....guys that plant cotton will plant more of it.......wheat is in the ground..........and now we are outta acres.......

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/22

good catch Al, hopefully the market head your warning.  That would be three 27 day ups and a retrace 27 up afterward.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/22

In times of irrational exuberance things can do some irrational things......:~)....... p-oed

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/22

 

Hi

Hotness in beans again...is the main link to oil ,wich now is above 91 USD.

Or is the problemweather in SA a bigger q

best w

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/22

1. South Amercian Weather (bull)

2. Crude above 91 (bull)

3. China raises interest rates (bear)

 

= Choppy Markets.

 

 

-Al

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/22

Al, volume and open interest has been going down with this last leg and other indicators are into over bought conditions.  What does it mean?

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Contributor

Re: Kluis Comments 12/22

Good Morning....

 

The volume in open interest declining at this time is a function of the holiday markets in the end of year trading. When I look at my oscillators and relative strength index prices are over bought and vulnerable to a set back. However, the current reality is until the weather improves in south america or some other negative fundamental event develops the trend is still up. 

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