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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Knock knock....

........Is anyone home at Successful farming?

Where oh where are all the marketing advisors?

With history being made in these grain markets, their silence is deafening.

Anyone willing to take a crack at where we are going from here? 

Oh come on............you have a 50/50 shot.  

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13 Replies

Re: Knock knock....

they are willing to pay $16 and $7 now. The year is young. They are shoring up and making sure they have enough for the years needs.

supplies are obviously low.

i think it will continue to go up based on weather uncertainties, potential war looming and coming out of a pandemic people will be out consuming more. Inflation is an issue , but maybe people will figure out they need to eat before they need entertainment.  

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Ouch

That stings...

ADM just rolled to May but at same time took 15 cents more basis.

I know they are fullish and these prices are triggering sales.

I litterally saw their bids go from $16.46 to $16.31 little bit ago.

Futures are very near last springs top/resistance.

There is a saying.

"Resistance is futile"

 Last years high was about here at these cbot amounts, BUT there was a positive basis at that time.

Best cash price I noticed then was $17.10 didn't last long.

Input suppliers just want "their share".

Too bad they base it off of the highest price, not the average .

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Ouch

one other thing that would be interesting to see is a graph of percentage of crop sold at what price levels.

Bet 50% of beans sold under $11.50

Back on your topic RT don't think there is a very long list of "experts" that didn't have their clients sold out by $12.

Not sure their take has a lot of value after the fact. Still entertaing though...

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Knock knock....

roarintiger1,

 

The market gurus are telling me that it's not all about Russia and Ukraine's war tensions. Obviously, South America's lower crop estimates (by the day) are driving the big rally. Acreage is being bought each day. I've been told $17 soybeans is very possible within weeks.

I agree that these are unbelievable markets. We've hard four market peaks in the last 16 1/2 years. Two of those rally years have occurred very close to each other.

 

I hope all is well.

 

Marketeye

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elcheapo
Senior Advisor

Re: Knock knock....

You have to admit, this would be a tough time to be in the crystal ball gazing business.

Your clients are looking at you to max out their income....so now things get tricky...

If I advise you to sell now...you will be getting a very good price....historically speaking...these are good sales prices...and the same for the next two years....

But....tensions in the world, a modest supply, inflation, and "in theory" pent up demand...could spell higher....but how how is high ? Then there is the wx card, in us, and elsewhere... We could start with a 9 of hearts high hand...and if the dry continues end up with 4 aces and a king kicker...or all is well with record yeilds (unlikly due to fert prices) you could end up with a "neon rainbow" hand, alot of color, but you will never get the pot of gold.

If the winds change...it will be a mad dash for the door....remember...what goes up, must come down (except input costs)....so the sanctions work...russia announces pull back (more likly cnn, then reuters, ap say "high alitude images" show a pull back)....we could see a day or two limit down...and then the computers see it, they continue the blood letting, untill we hit reset.

So what is a market guru to do..

Youve got that airplane payment, and the like for the show biz side ..

I think the best for both the tea leaf readers, and farmers....start looking at ways to lock these prices in....

Forward sell, and get a position at chicago, or a call ?

Or get a position on the board or a cheap put 

Or do you let it ride, untill putin and biden and the leaders of the ukraine all walk out together, with their umbrella in the middle of a downpour, and announce everyone is friends, and a group hug....

Just how fast can you call the coop or broker ??

Or....if cnn shows a mushroom cloud....

I dont know how that would play out....could be the market goes into shock.

The way the world is right now...

Joe might be wise wearing diapers !!

Investment into "attends" stock might be a wise move....we all might be wearing them if things get off balance....oh I forgot china, and middle east....

I think I take a large.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Knock knock....

Thanks for the responses.   This dialog....(posting responses) is what I'm looking for.   There are people all over the place smarter than me.   Please excuse me while I sit down for a while.........my head is spinning from all of these market moves and this additional knowledge flowing in.      No...........really, I truly mean it.   😁

Wouldn't everyone really like to know what this market will look like in 6 months?   I know that I would.  

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elcheapo
Senior Advisor

Re: Ouch

Oh my....we have come a long ways..from "the trend is your friend", to quoting the borg in star trek......

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Knock knock....

RT,    one point IMO.  Most all marketing advisers are formula promoters.  There is a long list of things these days that don't fit a formula.  Makes folks very uncomfortable and for god sake make very little sense.

Like the Press trying to survive their own insanity the last 14 years.  Or the three names in line to be president at the skip of a heart beat.  national debt.  a large % of citizens just "checking out" these days.  USDA's inability to see agriculture outside the beltway.  Facts just can't be improvised and understood behind a mask.(it all sounds like "hands up" suckers)....... A president that needs a walker.  Not knowing whether the grain destination will be in business in 6 months.    Truckers shutting down an economy that will terminate their careers and looking like heroes for it.  Congress dead set on destroying the soybean and corn markets by pouring it all in a truck and calling it "clean" energy.   All of us  in the haze that comes with fuel mandates and self driving cars based on lines that may or may not be there while the sensors on the vehicle have a panic attack because the lane has a deer dashing through it. (knowing there won't be chips to decipher a deer from a prostitute(or your grandchild)

 

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k-289
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Knock knock....

RISK   OFF   DAY   -   read  the  disclaimer  - 😎 

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