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Senior Advisor

Re: Won't you know, I sell 1000 more bu. of new crop beans and ...

... the market jumps 8 cents higher.  On the other hand, the price hit my target so I executed the plan.  Now I've moved my target up to the next notch. We'll find out if it was the right move in Nov. but at least now I've got something on the books.

  Meanwhile, my seed is bought and they tell me it's at the warehouse with my name on it, the herbicide sits in the shed, the biodiesel was made last Sept. for 60 cents a gallon. My gamble that the price of corn fertilizer would come down by spring was a loser but it doesn't matter, that money can come home & sit in the bank, or do something else.

   I know some guys are going all-in on corn, paying the high dollar for the fertilizer,  saying that corn will be worth $8 in the fall, gambling on the price & yield, but that's their choice, I hope they're right for their sake. I'm not that brave, I know that one out of every five years is less than mediocre here.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Knock knock.... brought up good point...the elevator you haul to.

At these levels....there is alot of money going thru the elevator..a whole lot of floating going on...their regular banks may not be able to handle it...big checks going out to farmers for grain sales...and that $1350 Nh3, $885 urea and $950 11-52....

If you are the manager, you say a little pray as you are going to the bank, with the checks from farmers and the company you sold the grain to....

Also have a feeling you will not have many uncovered grain piles this year.



Honored Advisor


You got the move you were waiting for.... but in this scenario we may see basis erode --- way too much uncertainty and high dollar risk.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Rick

The basis will come some point after the markets tank.

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