Kory Melby's take last week

[Hobbyfarmer]

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Weather Update

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12 Feb 13

I woke up to a sunny, cloud free day. This is the first one in about 3 weeks. The pattern has shifted.
I see Mato Grosso also has a clear sky.
We cannot comprehend how many millions of bushels of soybeans will be harvested today. It will likely be some sort of record.
I think we are out of the woods, so to speak, as per Brazil weather problems and delays. The Amazon rains of the past 3 weeks are considered normal. With the increased acreage of soybeans, this weather event, will get more attention in the coming years.
Mato Grosso farmers can handle wet soybeans and the rains. But when it does not stop raining for literally 3 weeks, they do not get a chance to “catch up.”
The normal pattern is to get going about 10 am on sunny mornings and harvest till about 5 pm. 5 pm is when the daily showers pop up and things shut down for the day. Soybeans may start out at 22% moisture and drop to 14-15% quickly. The power of the Brazil sun is beyond impressive to dry things down.
We will now shift the focus to logistics. Can Brazil dry, clean, and ship this mega crop to port in a timely manner? Next week, there might be a port strike for 2 or 3 days. “ A work slow down”. Is this a major issue? No, not really. It has become common place in recent years.
There is said to be 6 million ton+ of empty ship capacity waiting to load at various ports. This is about 1 month´s worth of loading volume.
These ships will be loading in March. The kicker is - there are that many more ships on their way to load as we speak. Another 6 million ton for April and another 6 million ton for May and most likely June this year. Brazil will likely load 24 mmt of soybeans in the next 4 months before things start to slow down.
I will be watching for hiccups in the grand plan. In perfect world, this should be no problem. In Brazil, stay tuned.
As per all the chatter out of Argentina, we need to keep in mind that there would be no Argentine government if not for soybeans. The farmers need dollars and Argentina needs the tax revenue. There is very little the government can do to entice sales.
I still think Argentine crop is 50 mmt +. With increased rain chances in the coming week, we will likely save the crop “Just in time” once again. Rule of thumb is to never kill the Argentine crop to soon. I have faith in Argentine soils - not the government.

[too close for comfort]

Hi Hobby: I don't know who Kory Melby is so I can't be a judge of his knowledge of things in SA but has he ever said how they "handle" wet beans down there? We have a difficult time with wet beans here and we have drying and storage. At 14 to 22% moisture, and as long as it takes to get to a port, things must be kind of ripe by the time they are unloaded. 

[Hobbyfarmer]

About Kory Melby

Minnesota Farmer living inGoiânia,Brazil

Essays and Observations

Kory Melby (42) was born and raised in a small farming community in northwest Minnesota. Kory graduated from Greenbush High School and continued his education at the University of Minnesota, Crookston campus. He majored in Farm Management, Ag marketing and Ag Aviation. Kory has been actively involved with production agriculture for 25 years. Kory's first visit to Brazil was in 1994 with a group of producers from Minnesota and North Dakota. Kory became fascinated in Brazil again in the late 1990s when the American Ag media highlighted the aggressive soybean expansion in Mato Grosso.
In January 2001 Kory joined a group of progressive producers and businessmen on a tour of Mato Grosso. Once Kory grasped the magnitude of the global competition facing him, he decided to make some structural changes in his family's farming operation. In the following years Kory returned to Brazil eight times to research opportunities in the agricultural sector.
“I realized during my travels there was an information void with regards to accurate/honest on the ground intel from the interior of Brazil. In Brazil the theme is: “When things are good they are beyond fantastic; When things are bad they are worse than terrible.” I was not able to find anyone that was able to filter the facts from the fiction. I decided to form a Blog/website (consulting venue) that would help others interested in Brazil expedite their learning curve. I have had many experiences in Brazil both GOOD and BAD. I have a vast knowledge of the mistakes others have made setting up companies, farms, and cultural misunderstandings that can be of value to newcomers to Brazil. I consider myself a liaison between the North American and Latin America cultures.”
Kory now lives with his wife and son in the city of Goiânia, Goiás Brazil.
"The past ten years have been spent researching land and business opportunities within Brazil. Kory has traveled throughout the country gaining knowledge and experience in numerous different venues. The most important aspect for doing business within Brazil is the social connection. Kory has spent countless hours developing relationships inside Brazil."
“After living in Brazil for ten years and doing many investor type tours, I have witnessed a common faux paux among North American ideas for a Brazilian operating business model. In many instances, North Americans tend to impose their business model ideas upon Brazilians. In my experience the American business model does not incorporate well with the Brazil operating model. American models focus on competitiveness, results, speed, efficiency, and ROI. “Successful” Brazil operating platforms focus on social, environmental and political (who you know) connections.”
“I am not advocating one system over the other; both have merits and flaws.”
"THE POINT I TRY TO MAKE TO NEWCOMERS TO BRAZIL IS THEY MUST UNDERSTAND THIS CULTURAL PREREQUISITE IN ORDER TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SURVIVAL."
“I think the key to successful Brazilian investment is to find synergies with existing Brazilian entities. One must work with and not compete with other Brazilian entities.”
“I have always approached living in Brazil as a privilege. It is their country - not mine. I am a guest here. BEHAVE AND INVEST ACCORDINGLY” I think one must find a common “bond” with local Brazilians. This can come in many forms. Agriculture, Education system, exchange student, church connections, or a common product that has appeal across cultural lines. I was able to form bonds with locals in Mato Grosso because of my experience with clearing and developing ag land in Minnesota. We had a common life story. Over time trust grew and I became part of the family. For new comers to Brazil, one must not only find your niche but also have a team of contacts that one can rely on to help you; not only to learn the language but also help you to solve problems. So many do not realize that in order to finance a new refrigerator at a store one must get a guarantor to vouch for you. If you do not pay, they will go after your contact person. "
The world commodity markets are watching Brazil's ability to surge in production with regards to basic food staples. Kory is on the front lines watching new trends develop in Brazil. Kory's newsletter's and VIP updates keep valued clients aware of current conditions in Brazil.
“With my North American experience in production agriculture, real estate, ag machinery markets and their global inter-dependency (supply/demand), I provide a unique perspective that many traders, investors and commodity research analysts rely on.”
The state of Mato Grosso is my area of expertise; however, with contacts in Bahia, Tocantins, São Paulo and Paraná. He is very comfortable discussing the conditions in each of the aforementioned states. Kory does consulting for various hedge funds, private equity and commodity groups. He has also organized and hosted numerous tours through Brazil and Argentina. Tours have ranged from VIP infrastructure tours to curious producers from USA and Canada. Kory has also assisted journalists from Minneapolis Star Tribune, Wisconsin State Journal, Forth Worth Star Telegram, Los Angeles Times, Virginia Quarterly and US News and World Report. Kory specializes in Brazil tours that are specific to the clients needs and schedule.
Recent developments include: Researching ag machinery market trends, monitoring legislation regarding foreign land ownership within Brazil, updating land price trends within Brazil, fertilizer, commodity research, and guiding investors as to the changes in environmental laws including reserve requirements and clear titles.