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Veteran Advisor

La Nina or El Nino

I know that these weather patterns impact the markets, for sure. I was wondering, based upon your farming through these types of weather patterns, which one do you prefer? Have you had a tougher experience with El Nino or La Nina? And what was the experience?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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21 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

The answer to that question very much relies on the strength of the particular event.  They say we are supposed to be shifting from a strong elnino to a strong la nina.  The last time that happened was 1988/89 if I remember correctly.  So, IF that really is the case I will not like the la nina event as it will have a great negative impact on my farming operation.  Problem is no one knows for sure when it will happen or how strong it will be or how long it will last or if it will behave like the last strong shift or if it will be a strong shift.  Kinda like the whole global warming/climate change crap.  I will go into this season as I have the past 25.  Control what I can control and leave the rest up to the powers that be.

Veteran Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

northnd,

 

You hit the nail on the head. One thing is for sure, farming is still done without a roof. There's not much you can do about how mother nature is going to act crop-season to crop-season. It is going to be a year for the ages, though. Will we or won't we follow up South America's record-large crop with one here in the U.S.? Heck, even a normal or avg. crop this year will be seen as tough on the markets.

 

Mike

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

northnd,

 

Interesting piece out of the University of California-Irvine, Thursday. This press release states that water evaporating from the sea has landed in abundance on land across the globe. It is supplying a great amount of groundwater. Is this why we produced the third largest corn crop, during the worst drought in 50 years, in 2012? Maybe the markets should consider the evidence that drought years shouldn't really cause prices to go sky high? Just sayin.

 

Here's the clip from the press release:

A new study by scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, and the University of California, Irvine, shows that while ice sheets and glaciers continue to melt, changes in weather and climate over the past decade have caused Earth’s continents to soak up and store an extra 3.2 trillion tons of water in soils, lakes and underground aquifers, temporarily slowing the rate of sea level rise by about 20 percent.
 
The water gains over land were spread globally, but taken together they equal the volume of Lake Huron, the world’s seventh largest lake. The study is published in the Feb. 12 issue of the journal Science.

 

Mike

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

I selfishly would like to have La Nina in the summer because it lowers yields/higher prices and it seems that the ground around here gets down and boogies in a drought.  I like El Nino in the winter, because I like mild winters. 

 

If there is anything to global warming, I sure wouldn`t want to stop it   Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Was at yet another "educational" meeting today.  Had yet another climate person...they are taking a whole different take,

rather than looking at "the oscillations"....rather look at sunspot activity, solar radiation, etc........now, we should have

plenty of rain this year......but 2019 look out, it will get dry.

 

Here is what i've figured out for this year........BUY THE MOST CROP INSURANCE AS YOU CAN THIS YEAR...WE WILL

EITHER DRY UP, OR FLOOD OUT.

 

either way..........will it be a good year for markets ?????

 

(later in the year after the weather events, or lack there of, occurance in the spring/summer)

 

side note......interesting preserved idenity program for hi oleic soybeans......will be used to replace trans fat...will be

used in coffee mate creamer, along with other things.

 

 

 

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Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

It is amazing how long this global warming debate has went on.  I call it that because that is what is was called when I was in college.  Remember an environmental geology course I was in and we were discussing it.  This was 1989.  The professor was a groundwater specialist and his view was that data he had collected over several years showed no apprecible change in ground water temps.  He felt that the stability of the temps in groundwater were a good indicator and if they started to rise then global warming COULD be an explanation.  The thing about science is that if you have a preconcived bias because that is were your grants and funding comes from anything can be explained with the data you collect.  EX.  We are supposed to be flooding, we predicted it, so the soil must be absorbing the volumes of water that we predicted you would be drowning in.  I am tired of it.  Humans adapt.  Wrecking the economy of a country on a theory seems extreme.

Senior Contributor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Mike, we produced the third largest crop in 2012 because of the large amount of acres not because it was a decent crop.

Honored Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Listened to the La N and El N stuff and their potential relationship to any of my problems ...... well I'm not even sure if they are sisters or hispanic...  But I avoid the details....  It is just another group of limited data related to a supposed theory, created in the presence of a lot of unknowns... in a world of limited historic data... 

Also seems to be part of the weather channels desire to be interesting, funny, and shocking........ whatever brings viewers and readers so advertising can be sold.

 

Northnd, thank you. My faith in younger folks has been reestablished.......... well at least encouraged.......Smiley Happy

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Really? People really think the 2012 crop was good? It was large due to 97m acres planted not due to a good crop.