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Honored Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Mike few statements are as illogical as that one.

 

 This press release states that water evaporating from the sea has landed in abundance on land across the globe. It is supplying a great amount of groundwater......

 

Even in California they are living through some of the worst drought years in recorded history and struggling to find good groundwater...

 

2012---- even with 97 million acres it was so poor we shipped corn back up the mississippi river to meet our own needs.....

but of course usda never acknowledged that even though it was fact...

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Veteran Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

So true sw - wife and I were traveling back from east coast with 2 of our grand-daughters in late August of 2012.

We drove thru Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri and Iowa making several stops along the way.

We could see the remnants of hurricane Isaac as we traveled west, looking at some of the worst crops I have ever seen.

The people we talked to along the way spoke of the unrelenting heat and lack of water.

Unbelieveable how somebody can publish a report that ignores one of the worst droughts in the last 50 years.

For people that track groundwater levels as much as you do the BS detector must go off pretty loud!!

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

I believe most college research is suspect now.  The goal is research grants, not research, so making bold statement means more grant money to confirm. I found I do not trust college research anymore.

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Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Great Lakes levels went from quite historically low to the opposite since 2012.

 

Soil Moisture Anomaly is pretty positive across most of the Plains and Cornbelt so if we're going to get a weather scare anytime before mid-summer  it's either going to be palnting delays or a wheat freeze scare.

 

http://www.qtweather.com/showImage.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FSoilmst_Monito...

 

Given other phenomena like the ocean evaporation rates that you mentioned, I've concluded that whatever small stock I once paced on el nino talk should now be even less.

 

I'm not to try to account for every possibility but won't get myself excited until those surpluses start to turn to deficits across a large area. In both '87-'88 and '11-'12 the deficits had begun to build the previous year.

 

But there have also been eyars that began with deficits and produced boomer crops with timely rains.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Nebraska raised  @ 1.68  Billion bu. in 2015 - above normal precipt has recovered some of the aquifer - that being said 1.5 billion crop is in the works even with less than normal precip in 2016 - time will tell although I '' might '' wager $1 on it  ---    

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Honored Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Nox I think you are right now ,, we are probably on the opposite extreme..... Now we will ignore floods in southern iowa and Missouri instead of drought so we can maintain top yields and low prices...

And downplay insurance claims and payouts,,, blaming greediy farmers for applying for insurance claims they could have lived without..

 

It is all about the spin...

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Honored Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Isc76cat,  I will say one thing, the comments spured me to start filling out the irrigation reports for the state.  And today I measured the depth to water in the first few we will report on...... We used less water ..... and in two of the locations I checked the gw level came up 35 and 40+ feet.  Several raised between 5-10 feet... Will continue the process next week...

One of our wells is monitored by the Kansas geological survey annually and their reading is taken January 1...  I do my reports in late February(due Mar 1)  I go to that one first, I like to see what happened in that @50 day period...between readings... 

They have been recording a steady decline through the 5 drought years on the report card they always leave at the well.

This year they left no card....... Must not have liked the results....... not as expected .... they will probably through this year out of their data, since their conclusions have been published years ago..and it doesn't match.

 

Ks geologic survey says it takes many years for rainfall to add an inch or two to the groundwater level..... I guess University of California-Irvine doesn't have much faith in that University generated stuff either...  And I agree, "one size fits all" statements are usually wrong.... We live in a strong recharge area like southern Nebraska, most of KS does not have that  

Kansas refilled its reservoirs in just 6 months after the governor anounced they were so low it would take 30+years.... 

That followed 4 years (11-14) that were hotter and dryer than any 4 years in the dust bowl 30's ...

2011 corn was standing in water and lost all its leaves to one afternoon's heat of 117 and 35 mph wind...our 240 corn turned to 130 immediately and from Mineola to Missouri in southern Ks ears just did not develop   350 miles wide... Texas was worse...

Point is it can happen in all conditions..  But ya can't bet on it....That is what usda does month in and month out, bet on the crop.  And as long as there is a lot of crop planted and years to string out data, who cares about the real crop....

 

It is what I hate about sports gamblers.  They don't care about the sport or the teams as long as their odds are favorable...

Like usda-- players and crops don't matter, their playing the odds....

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Veteran Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

SW - Your last sentence summed it up and I have yet to figure out why  CBOT  & CME  are still in Chicago  &  not on I-15 @ 420 miles due south of Salt Lake City or  270 miles north of  L. A   where the real wagering takes place ?  As far as water measurment goes Nebraska has a new  '' Ornament ''  on the water study tree of knowledge called - drum role -  ''' age dating ''' ??  I wonder if it's a spin from like the new age of electronic sites of say '' E- harm - money ''  or 1 of those so called dating sites - and to test the water it is only a few hundred  $$$ to see if your water is  '' new ''  or  '' old water ''  ? ?  Keep those research  funding $$$  coming please ---  

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Veteran Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

SW  Looking at the   USGS  ground water watch has some INTERESTING  triangles on it in your area  highway 54 corridor - although proceding northeast into Kansas very little data through out the whole state ?   Nebraska map data is also INTERESTING to the point of why - in this age of high speed everything - the information dates are running a year behind ?  Also some of our locations sites in the US highway 20 area in between US 281  &  US 81 are leaving me asking '' what's this deal '' ?? Stream flow in this state are pretty much a 90% rep of what's going on -  rocket science 101 ---  

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Veteran Advisor

Re: La Nina or El Nino

Kansas data being short ended due to budget cuts Smiley Sad ??

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