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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Lack of Emotion should be telling us something

Just an observation, the total lack or emotion, or enthusiasm, should cause us to raise our ears and listen a little closer. Market psychology, and position as demonstrated in the COT data, is clearly close to historic norms found close to the end of multi-year bear markets. Only referring to wheat here btw, corn and beans follow and wheat made new lows, so count on that in c/sb sometime in the future.

 

Even MT can't muster the energy to attack the crop size estimates. Heck, even those of us in the east who are way behind on planting know that it doesn't matter. IA/NE/MN/IL are all 100% planted into prefect conditions. Game over... Smiley Wink

 

Surely someone has a different view? Even our old friend buck has gone into hibernation.

 

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9 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Emotion should be telling us something

Yep game over.

'15 is a done deal, I finished Sat night @ 10:35 with corn.

.61" rain last night, cold cloudy and windy today, beans in the bag yet but too many of them in the world anyway.

Went to town this morning and saw a lot of weedy stalk fields that haven't been touched yet. Just a south central Iowa thing

And like you we don't count either.

Saw one weedy field about half done with nh 3, 

(Not all of Iowa is done, just the part that counts)

 

Saw my bil last night and he wasn't very upbeat about row crops, mostly rented land at his place. Still had 100 acres corn to go.

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lsc76cat
Senior Advisor

Re: Lack of Emotion should be telling us something

250 miles north of you Hobby and I was planting beans after 10 pm Saturday too.

I could see 2 other sets of lights in fields west of me. 

All trying to get as much done as possible before the rain forecasted for Sunday morning.

The rain finally showed up for us about 7 pm Sunday. (0.3")

Not too sure about those "perfect" planting conditions.

Corn is up and can be "rowed" everywhere but the peat ground.

That ground is just cold enough to slow things down.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Lack of Emotion should be telling us something

11.8-12.2B

We will see $5 corn within 12 months

How's that?

2016 will be a major production shortfall.

Lows will be made in June. We rally into harvest
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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: I agree Mizzou_Tiger, just

seems like "normal" yields change things some:

 

Say 156 to 161 national avg.

 

I'm thinking more like 147 to 153 national......we'll see.

 

 

 

 

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: It's Lack of Emotion in the OTHER Markets that IS telling us something

NOT many Players....in stocks.   bonds neither for that matter.

 

when the mucical chair fun is done, perhaps there's going to be some big changes....like new diametric economics globally.

 

 

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: It's Lack of Emotion in the OTHER Markets that IS telling us something

Time - I wish I could disagree with you.  I can't.  

 

I haven't been here mentioning anything about the weather - because it has been spot on, and looks to continue so.  

 

I wish I  saw $5.00 corn for you guys - I don't.  With the crop (mostly) in the ground, rainfall in the forecasts, and a big carry over.  It will take something dramatic to change traders minds.  Right now, I don't see it in the weather area.  The Gulf is open for precip, the semi permanent High that we had off CA last year isn't there (at least not yet), and fronts are moving across the US.  

 

Nor do I see it in the usage area.  Traders are, and will continue to be, in the "show me" state of mind.  In other words, the "possibility" of a drought, or too low a temps this summer, will have to be borne out and prove that crop losses are imminent.  I just don't see that on the horizon - not for this summer.  I'm glad I'm out.

 

From the equities side, I don't see the gloom and doom that others are seeing with this market.  It seems that many really want the stock market to crash - especially just before the elections.  I have more money in the market than I am really comfortable with, but it is yielding some OK returns.  A lot of people seem to be mindful of the "sell in May and go away" thing.  I am far less worried this year, than I was the last couple of years.  For now - that's where my money stays.

 

I wish I could agree with MT on this one.  $5.00 corn this summer.  But you won't see me buying the market - not right now.  

 

The bird flu is still making some noise out there.  As a percentage of the US production, the losses are still quite small.  Meats will be coming down, as we once again begin to overproduce at that sector.  Those with livestock are probably OK for this year - but the drop for you guys is coming.  And the cycle continues.....

 

Jen

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Emotion should be telling us something

So MT, you are using around a 146 yield? You are certainly an entertaining one. Nothing statistically to support your position, but you don't believe in statistics anyway 🙂

 

btw...your first load going out at $5 is pretty insignificant, surely everyone sold some last spring, our last load went out, all of them above $5....

 

rained out again, so I thought I'd poke our resident perennial bull....Smiley Wink

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Lack of Emotion should be telling us something

Won't know on the last load as it probably won't leave for another 12 months.

Could be $2. Could be $7

80M harvested @ 150 is a 12B crop
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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Lack of Emotion should be telling us something

we should bottom this year and rally into june of next year (should isn't the same as will).  We could have a spike to 4.40 in july and stay into a trading range.  We could beat history and produce a second garganuaon crop this year.  The last government report is telling you we are starting to increase usage in corn even after the bird flu.  Stocks are starting to shrink year after year after this crop report and any crop  problems should give us a quick run to 5,6,7 dollar corn.  We should see a same type of crop as last year until the next decade so pick your poison after cycles top out in 2016,17,18.  I don't see how what I am saying is any different them what other are talking about to why right and waste my time.

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