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08-26-2017 08:53 AM - edited 08-26-2017 08:56 AM
Haven't read much from the PF tour yet. I imagine that PF has a set of formulas used to smooth and modify the results from their samples, before coming up with their prognostications. Doubt if their formulas are publicized, yet suspect whatever USDA says might carry significant weighting. Might be more important to look simply at the direction of the PF tour yields relative to the latest USDA yields, as opposed to the actual PF yields themselves. Just sayin -- if PF differed too much from USDA, and especially if PF was wrong, they might be accused of manipulating the markets.
08-26-2017 10:11 AM
All the stories during the week said on beans they just took pod counts, didn't make predictions. I didn't do any checking but my memory says they usually stick real close to USDA. They should just save their gas money and time.
08-26-2017 11:30 AM
PF devined a national bean yield off of pod counts and sacrificing a toad on a tree stump under the eclipse. This yr Iowa pod count is 1092 vs last yr 1224 since that`s 10% off, it stands to reason Iowa yields should be at least 10% lower in Iowa anyway, cause I doubt conditions from now til harvest will be better than last year.
On USFR they said it`ll be 4 or 5th best corn crop, not the "2nd or 3rd best" and the one guru pretty much said there`s so danged much old corn, 67 trucks lined up at the ethanol plant that if the new crop yield was 5 bushel less than USDA, it wouldn`t move the needle on price. Beans are the only one with a "story". So, put another notch in your belts.
08-26-2017 01:06 PM - edited 08-26-2017 01:08 PM
Remember the idiot on USFR who said wheat had zero chance of a rally 6 months ago. Well, I took the other side of his attitude. At this point, I would certainly take the other side of the corn and bean bears attitude.
They had the same party last year. By the time harvest was over, the bears were wrong, and wrong pretty big.
Not that IN matters, but our little area of IN is in yield freefall. 4 tenths in august just don't cut it. Beans could easily be on the way to the worst yield in over a decade. 2005 maybe at 48, or 2003 at 45, vs. last year at 64 for perspective. I realize we don't count, but when I look at the rainfall maps, we are not alone. Lots of denial going on it seems to me...when the leaves start falling off it usually means it is irreversible damage
08-26-2017 03:37 PM
I think and hope that we`ve bottomed and the "ether" will pull prices higher With wheat, saying it had zero% chance of a rally that early was *****-u-meing a little too much, wheat`s a delicate crop grown in the high desert a day away from burning up and the whole protein issue. But corn and beans in late August, unless a meteor falls out of the sky those 2 crops are more quantifiable, still it ain`t in the bank yet though.
The way the USFR panel was talking, any rally will get smothered by farmer selling. However, a situation that would lead one to believe prices will be higher "if you can just store it a little longer" could change the narrative too.
08-27-2017 06:19 AM
My opinion on the PF crop tour......what a bunch of "CRAP"!!! The same goes for the winter wheat tour and the spring wheat tour! It just gives them a way to get out of the office on someone elses dime. Another joke is the usda reports. The july report for spring forgot to include all the acres of spring wheat in Western ND and SD and Montana that were baled for feed or abandoned for lack of rain.But all the grain gurus said usda will have them in the august report. lo and behold no account of lost acres but amazingly the russians are having a huge spring wheat crop! The industry is saved because prices will stay low! Theres never any mention that they have poor infrastucture to get it to port! Doesnt matter! There is more so prices must be less! Who is behind this market manipulation anyhow!?
08-27-2017 11:23 PM
I agree Roarin`, but they do this every year and get away with it, the "trade" seems treat USDA as gospel and they`ll get away with it this year too, just like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. But for the buyers, when has following the USDA ever done them wrong? They never got caught short holding an empty bag, USDA always has had their backs.
Poor Farmer has Iowa pegged at 180, I think I`ll get that in my backyard, I think it`s doable for the state, but will not be surprised if it comes down. Would be a surprise if any of the yield numbers were higher than the latest guesses.