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Senior Advisor

Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

I am STUNNED I tell you - absolutely stunned. Now I haven't heard the term 'awash in wheat' but I was expecting to hear it any time. That's the term that usually informs me that many a forecaster will be disappointed in poor yields from droughts and disaster. It has been almost a gaurantee of good prices ahead. Now Lanworth, the advisory group that uses satellite telemetry is saying "maybe not". I mean WHO KNEW?

 

Fact is, there have been a number of trends that signaled the same conclusion for a while.

 

I'll guess this will NOT filter to the floor for some time. At least until harvest.

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14 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

The key is if you look you can find someone to agree with your bias. ThaT is easy!

Just avoid anything negative and the mkt will go up.

poor yields from droughts and disaster.",  ? You might become fsmalier with historic

weaht production. It is grown all over the world and in large quantities.

 

Every yeare there are problems some places, everyyear. That is teh NORM. In years where on avg there are fewer drougts, bugs, diseases, we get bumper yields on avg.

 

In some yrs, 2-3 clsutred problems in high out put areas can serve to reduce supply.

tat happened 2 an 3 yrs ago.

 

Otherwise PRICE is the determinant , and highprices comboned with record farm incomes = plant plant. 

 

SRW look verty good this yr. World wise, should be an avg yr.

 

wheat is a weed, ur can handle a lot od stress. 

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Advisor

Re: Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

He's posting after a six pack of beers
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Senior Advisor

Re: Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

Everyone of your specific points is true. The key is watching the progression of trends. The Lanworth call is just another factor added on.

 

Pritch, you know how often you have been wrong by using generalities and seasonals and discounted major longer term market moves due to current trends? Seasonals are fine in their place but current trends are more reliable in any given market. How could it be otherwise?

 

Meanwhile, SWW is more than $1+ basis after a good harvest and a good crop coming on. Since it is 90% exported this is an indication of global demand. Meanwhile India has taken itself out of the market with unreasonable expectations.

 

If you aren't counting cards you're out of the game. If you aren't counting cards you also can't make higher bets when then odds are in your favor. Every hand is an average hand using averages.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

    I am waiting patiently for the dealer to deall the hand that will make the difference,(the combines,)starting in the southern plains,and working all the way up in to the provences.They do not lie,and there is a lot of problems brewing out there globaly! Going to be an interesting season. Perhaps it will get interesting enough to intice the funds,(even if corn and soy seem to be on an normal track.)

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Advisor

Re: Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

Ray h, I don't believe the provinces will have trouble. Surprisingly the praries are only slightly behind.. But they do get hail/ frost/ disease issues there. No floods this year.

As for Ontario, we have had the lowest overwintering problems in our winters this year... We overproduce soft red and import hrw. Some guys do have massive crops here. Very early planted last year due to early soybean planting. Just massive plants. Protein is historically the problem w it: ie too little n.... So bearish srw and bull hrw. Maybe we have grain fill issues later? I'm going to say w at least 51% certainty we have a good crop in Ontario.... The praries can still get too too much rain like that. I'm doubting that we won't have enough moisture to work through June and July... I mean we need 5" to get a moderate crop w heading just around the corner
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Honored Advisor

Re: Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

Well the combine crews will be well rested by the time you need them, ---------------- if they make the run this year.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

Shouldn't they be starting the wheat harvest in Texas soon?  Is there any wheat to harvest there?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

     farmerguy89  That is just the type of comment the trade likes to hear.We are all rite.We can produce  more than any one else.We are big and sufficating in our ability to produce a big crop.Without farmers like this, the world would sertainly starve! There are problems out there that trump your neck of the woods.Realize them and profit from them. Out my window it looks good to,but the gravity of world production is not out your window.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

South end has some this time------ then its a long drive north------------------ this is summerfallow wheat in the okla. panhandle.  Died before it could make a blank head from the 5 freeze events

 

 

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