Lanworth: Global wheat production won't meet demand

[farmerguy89]

Ray, I agree: the states are screwed. However, I think that the praries may actually grow some crops this year. In terms of overall wheat, Ontario is nothing, but the praries are kind of a big deal. I mean, they produce high quality mill wheat that is highly desired everywhere. My local miller has many tonnes already and more barges are coming to Ontario from the praries this summer.

Planting date is critical for spring wheat more than corn, and many prarie states are likely to lag behind

[pritchh]

FEED

Everyone of your specific points is true. The key is watching the progression of trends. [   satellite imagery is a one day pic and means whgat?, sounds sophisticated, so attracts but, really?]  The Lanworth call is just another factor added on.

Pritch, you know how often you have been wrong by using generalities [and seasonals and [ 100% wrong, are you involed in mkts? Seasonals are seasonals, tendencies, smart marketers use them for strategy and sell %s in periods of season highs- they are not trying to picstops but take advantage of what is out there , it is called smart mkting ]  are you discounted major longer term market moves due to current trends?{ look at your Egypt knows posts, you think Egypt has some mkt insight and when they buy, stay long---vs it is among the poorest countries out there, they get desperate, worried and but TOPS,, look back, those who helped fill their demand,, ie sold on the headline WON ] Seasonals are fine in their place but current trends are more reliable in any given market. How could it be otherwise?

[ are you SURE???? You don’t seem to know what a seasonal is, it is tendency. No one but you is trying to sell the top, Smart mkters spread out sales, taking advantage of what is offered,, and try NOT to be ahero- because there are none.}

Meanwhile, SWW is more than $1+ basis after a good harvest and a good crop coming on. Since it is 90% exported this is an indication of global demand. Meanwhile India has taken itself out of the market with unreasonable expectations.  [ SWW is mostly export, fact and each year, every year  there is global use and demand, it tends to sell over CBT SRW – what is you point >  all work demand didn’t close up?. Demand barly changes, to sell more SWW than avg you need a shortfall in similar elsewhere ] 

If you aren't counting cards you're out of the game. If you aren't counting cards you also can't make higher bets when then odds are in your favor. Every hand is an average hand using averages.

[ count the cards, it is all there, the #s, the trend yields, SRW days of record feed use in the Delmarva ends in Aug13.

Look at the cards]    [   we can  on any day go find SOME nut super or super bear view a?  yes it is called FEED, people are hungry and  Buy FEED, views,, to assuage their lack……alt is get honest, objective and act with math and science and improve outcomes  ]

[ CBT SRW peaked 2.5 yrs ago, good producers have collected, harvested  fat nut spec premia. , remember buy commodity indexes?, and MASS and CT soccer Mom’s did. Grain is nit a capital asset!! High prices being supply and low prices,,, what was the objective of being long cocoa wheat,, help feed the world and pay alt to doit?

Palouser you bring bull posts here endlessly, why? Because the mkt is always bullish>? Smart spces fill the role

Of the non hedger, and sit short in bear mkts and earn what producers should be earning ] 

[pritchh]

simple view here -HRW will be under trend in yield and % harvested less than norm. but still a pretty good crop.

SRW will be above TRENDyield,  and % harvested will be slightly higher than avg.

We have a lot of SRW on th balance sheet and HRW 's balance sheet is improving vs the tightness of 1-2 yrs ago.

trends are down, rallies usually come, use 'em.

The days of mass indexbuyinbg tc, i think are past.

next macro phase might be out 203 yrs, when we have too much, way too much and terrible prices needed to

discourage prod.

look at S hemisphere,, aussielkand and SA, what do you see in acreage trends therea? booming

perma bull posters are polular on prodicer formus -- sorry, fwiw  tryning to be real here.

[Palouser]

Pritch, I'm not trying to be personal but you are not 'trying to be real' vs your criticisms. This is long standing. And in fact I'm not a 'permabull' except in your estimation.

Your first point in your red soaked critique of my post demonstrateds your lack of objectivity. You sailed right past my statement that Lanworth is but one factor, not the whole story, etc. Most of your retort is generalities and misleading. For instance - your characterization that wheat production in S America is 'booming'. Well, it's not simply because of government controls, weather, etc. Much of Argentina's production usually goes to cover Brazil's needs and they have had to go out on the global market this last year.

I stay current, you seem to embrace generalities regarding patterns. I don't have that luxury. I actually have physical wheat to sell and I've done so very well for a matter of years. Call it luck if you will. Maybe it is. But I've had my reasons to gather current information for a current perspective and am sensitive to trends and changes in the trends in a meaningful way to help make those decisions. And I'm patient.

So, ignore me please. I don't have your perspective and I never will. I'm an opportunist who finds opportunities using information.

[Palouser]

....... maybe you should continue because almost eveery single time you've come out with a lecture after I've posted information (facts or trends or perspectives) the market seems to shoot up. As a natural long I can't help but like that.