Re: Last chance
I'm with Doug N. I'm in the 12.8 to 13 billion club. In reality it is probably higher but am trying to be cautious. A big part of the cornbelt finished or is finishing quicker than they should have on corn. This is due to late season dryness and leaf disease. Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota have had plenty of rain to finish out their already stellar crop. We here reports of some issues from those areas but by and large they will do really well. I just don't see anyway Iowa can finish and have the kind of year Illinois had last year though. This thing could get real interesting in the next few weeks as harvest starts to crank up. It's gonna go one of two ways. It will either stun people how much better the crop is than they thought or it will be a stunner the other way. I feel like locally we have lost at least 10 to 15 bushels off corn in the last two weeks. I still feel like we are in the 190 to 200 range on a lot of our stuff. I haven't traveled much this summer so can't really comment much on other areas. Look at the bright side Tigger. This could be the first time since 2012 that you haven't missed the size of the corn crop by a billion bushels or more!
Re: Last chance
That said its more about calling out all these blood sucking a hole private firms and USDA that want to pencil in a monster crop before the seed is even bought.
While I wasn't right on the number (and as I said wont be) I was right on the trend of a smaller crop than advertised which was bullish in 2010, 2011, 2012. 2013 was a wash, it was smaller than 14B and carryout basically got to 1B instead of 2B as advertised and it gave many opportunities to sell $5 and $6 corn and basis ripped beans into the $15 range. So all in all not bad for a wash. 2014 was bigger than I thought but keeps getting trimmed. That said I was smart enough to realize opportunity and sold beans for handsome number and what corn is moved went very well priced too. What corn didn't get moved is tucked away for a cold winters nap and a new tin can is going up for harvest
2015 is still a chapter that has yet to be written and if it plays out like reality would say, that new tin can will be paid for in one year.