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Veteran Advisor

Let's Talk USDA

On Monday, the USDA will release its September Supply/Demand Reports. So far, it looks to be friendly for corn, unfriendly for soybeans. However, the lower ending stocks number could turn the report positive for the bean market.

 

USDA Thoughts:

 

--Expected to lower U.S. corn yields to 173. 4 bu./acre vs. 175.1 USDA August estimate

 

--Expected to raise U.S. soybean yield est. to 49.2 bu./acre vs. 48.9 USDA August estimate

 

--Expected to lower U.S. 2015/16 soybean ending stocks to 200 million bushels or below

 

--Brazil's 2016-17 soybean crop seen at record-large 103.1 mill. tons.

 

--CONAB says Brazil's 2015-16 soybean crop seen at 95.4 mill. tons

 

What say you? What will you be watching, in this report?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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3 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Let's Talk USDA

Its crop insurance time, we will have a slightly bullish report. No need to make farmer checks any bigger.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Let's Talk USDA

I'd be shocked if they kept corn demand numbers as high as they are. Most likely

they will lower yield and lower demand and the carryout is the same. That is

probably not a bullish report at all just neutral.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Let's Talk USDA

Flying over eastern Iowa a month ago everything looked uniform and healthy.  Flying over in the last few days shows corn fields showing water damage and uneven turning of soybean fields.  

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