cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Let`s look at 2013

First of all, i would love it if the "12 & 3" camp come to fruition, it would be best for all of us.  Less bushels to sell at a higher price equals more money in all of our pockets...however "if if`s and but`s were candy and nuts, we`d all have a good Christmas", if we want to survive this thing, we need to be realistic. 

 

 

So, let`s look at 2013.  That was the year from hell alot of prevent plant and mudding in a crop that was planted 6 weeks late and Ray J vistited Vinje (ground zero) and had the best mushroom and Swiss Burger to witness what was going on that June of 2013.

 

That area is today, God willing and the creek don`t rise is set to raise their best crop ever.  In 2013 however things looked bleak, we heard of terrific crops in lands far far away in places like Indiana and Illinois and Missouri...we didn`t believe it, we couldn`t understand how our center of the universe could be so bad and these 'fringe areas" were bragging about what great crops they had coming.  We couldn`t see how the corn crop would be over 10 billion bushel...but the 2013 corn crop was ...drumroll.... 158.8 bpa and 13.9 billion bushel.

 

And here is something to consider FC Stone estimated the 2013 corn crop at 156.4, they were 2 bushels less than the final FYI

 

So, I don`t know, I haven`t driven far enough to see a prevent plant field this year...but 2 years ago around here there was prevent plant all over and tough looking crops and this was on $13,000 land that was pattern tiled. 

 

I just mean to put things in perspective, if 165 bpa and 13.3 billion bushel `15 corn crop is banteed about, that sounds very reasonable compared to how 2013 turned out.

 

I don`t own any old crop to sell and I haven`t sold any new crop, so if I thought I could talk up the price, believe me I`d try.   Maybe a bullish case can be made from the demand side, but on the production side if FC Stone is saying "165" that sounds reasonable to me.

 

Just my 2¢

0 Kudos
4 Replies
tree fmr
Advisor

Re: Let`s look at 2013

We rented a farm late due to it was held up in a power struggle.  Corn was planted a month later than we like and beans were finished planting on July 4.  Amazingly the corn is the best looking in the neighborhood, except for where the 20 calves decided to make a personal corn maze!!  The beans are short but growing well, if not an early frost they just might make it.

 

Don't count your ears before they are in the tin can.

0 Kudos
rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Let`s look at 2013

BA....you just made me hungry for one of those monster mushroom and swiss sandwiches!!

0 Kudos
Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Let`s look at 2013

BA, the re-survey on soybean acres will not be correct on the next report. The re-survey only includes Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri. Ohio, Indiana and Illinois will not be included, and yes there is PP in Illinois as well, Ive seen it myself. If I had to take a guess between Ohio, Indiana and Illinois the PP would tally close to 500,000 acres. Now thats just a guess. The difference between this year and 2013, is the bad crops are in several states and not just Iowa. Ive seen the Iowa crop this year, and its big. The best crops Ive seen this year in Iowa were right around Iowa City, so Jim Meade ought to have a pretty good year. So if Illinois didnt look as bad as it does in places I would agree with you. I dont think we go as low as MT thinks we will, but he is probably closer than some of the marketing firms. Look on the bright side BA, you might sell corn and beans above COP after all!

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Let`s look at 2013

Hey Blacksand, in `13 Minnesota was a disaster too and Wisconsin..but I recall as soon as guy went west on I-90 past Fairmont Mn it got better and better all the way to the tip of the Badlands.  That saying "rain makes grain" ..I realize after a point it doesn`t, but on the whole most US corn ground needs water, not here in NCIA we do our best when it`s a little on the dry side.

 

But there are good crops in Indiana and Ilinois, it isn`t all 4 foot tall and yellow that you see on the internet.  And in `13 The corn that I mudded in the 15th of May just before a solid month of not going (i did sneak the beans in 1st week of June that year 43 bpa)   Guys were able to get a crop planting late because of a very late frost that year.

 

2013 was a very weird year for us 13" of snow May 2nd..then it was 100º May 12 (1st 100º that I saw in a decade) following by about 5 days to plant then 1 month of 4" followed by 3" followed by 6" followed by 1" followed by 2"  and on and on until next thing a guy knew it was June 25th.

0 Kudos