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Veteran Advisor

Let's talk

Well here it is almost mid september.  Usually at this time of year things are starting to crank up.

talk of corn and bean harvest........getting ready to plant wheat..........etc...........

 

BUT

 

nope....not as much this year.

 

rain.......we have wheat fields not even worked once since harvest......just been too wet.

was out woddling thru the milo looking for sugar cane aphids and  headworms....was walking in mud

looking at beans for the clover worm......found them, rather they have found the beans....need to do the numbers

on spraying. again......a swamp.......

 

thunderstorms and severe wx on way today.........then again next week.

 

been trying to figure all this out.........and i think ive come to the conclusing that.......it's a bloody mess

 

and i can't see any bright spots for a while.........

 

wheat..........there is no money in south america from what i'm told..you can't even barrow it..........so how are you going to get

the expensive corn or soybean seed ?  wheat is cheap, and doesnt require any fertilizer......plus, to make things worse, i

guess the export tax has been taken off corn and wheat, but left on beans.....thus incentive to plant wheat and corn.

 

onto mother russia....rumor has it, big companys in charge now, and they want to plant, they can produce 3 TIMES what

they do now, easy..........

 

so what's ya do....

 

i have talked to several grain companies, and nobody would give me a quote for the 2017 milo/soybean crop....finally got one.

 

look at these numbers.....and figure out what you would do:

 

NEW CROP 2017

 

Wheat $ 3.70

soybeans 8.82  (locally is usually 20 under terminal) so local is 8.62

milo  3.11 terminal......local is usually 15 under terminal..so local is 2.96

 

here we are dryland corn mostly......and county t1 is 60 bu........but i just don't understand the huge increase in dryland

corn acres.......granted inputs are lower than what i have seen for watered corn, but still, if you are planting at 20,000

your still looking at about 45 an acre for seed......at least 35 for fert and at least 35 for a restable herbicide program.

throw in 35 for operations cost...then insurance etc.....i worry with margins like that, plus you don't get a rain, you are

sunk.....and i've seen corn dry up to nothing and have ears that look like popcorn.

 

i guess you could go open pollionated......that would bring seed cost down to $20 an acre.......but no modern stuff at all,

not even glyphos !!!

 

so.........what's we do ????

 

and from what i have a feeling.....the above prices i said might be "good levels".....imagine having to somehow lock in

the above......

 

eagle eye...........got any job openings ???????????

 

 

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9 Replies
Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Let's talk

Graze out wheat?

 

 

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Let's talk

el cheapo........you've provided a lot of info......but likely not the most important one

 

call the auctioneers and find out how many folks have booked their sale dates

 

THAT will tell us the seriousness of the issues you are talking about

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Honored Advisor

Re: Let's talk

Why would you be working wheat ground before planting it? Wastes fuel,

burns off organic matter in an area that has very little. Just seems awfully high

cost from 600 miles away.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Let's talk

Stopped in the local tire shop/gossip center the other morning, man o man the rumor mill is busy grinding away.

 

Having a forced sale silent bid land sale right here in South Podunk Country,, ends this coming Wed @ 2pm..

 

Right across the road from one of my farms. Pasture and worn out crop ground. 

 

Right now I think this is the quiet before the storm. More land for sale in this area than has been for a very long time.

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Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Let's talk

At $3 corn, 200 APH corn ground has an implied rent of around $200. 140 APH has close to 0.

 

 

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Let's talk

time you might be right, but the option i am kicking around is glyphos (or natural freeze, supposed to be in upper 40's tonight)

and burn it off, and no-till in.  around here with wheat, we need to be concerned with diseases in the stubble.

the other option would be to run over it once or twice in the spring with fungicide, and that's $$$$

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Let's talk

the other option would be to run over it once or twice in the spring with fungicide, and that's $$$$

 

 

Not trying to be a smart a-- here elcheapo ---- But - what do's that tractor and tool behind it cost to run over an acre vs. spraying it ? plus fuel + repair + your time + replacement .  The time you save spraying it gives you more time to post up more doom and gloom here  : ))

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Honored Advisor

Re: Let's talk

Diesel is cheaper than the herbicide and the equipment can be amortized over more years if necessary...

 

also it is hard to get the volunteer started so it can be killed to prevent disease with herbicides......  Most of HRW country has adjusted back to at least one tillage trip to prevent disease. More true in the southern wheat belt where herbicides are not working that well...

Most areas south of I-70 have one grass and one broadleaf that are hard to kill with herbicide in the heat of summer.  Witch grass and Kocia late season especially.

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Let's talk

Time ---- Wheat streak mosaic, carried by the mites in anything sort of vegitation alive will reinfest the new crop.  That "carrier" weed or moist vegitation has to be stone cold dead for a period of time or your just building a diseaster that takes years to reverse.

 

An infested field can distroy the wheat for three miles down wind..  And can reinfest a field for 3 to 5 years after established.

 

And most important ....... in sub 20 inch moisture areas...(western half of the high plains)  there aren't many options to wheat.  for grain or livestock feed.

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