cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Linn Group 5 million corn acres below USDA

And soy remaining about the same.

 

This will be a cannon shot in the markets. Let me take that back. The markets are slow to react. It will be a very slow motion cannon shot. I think there is reason to be comncerned about the China crop. The combinations are conspiring to make it almost an impossibility to rationalize how this can all come out good in the end.

 

Meanwhile I'm taking PP in an area of the country where I don't think it's ever happened before - the Pacific Northwest.

0 Kudos
6 Replies
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Soya are a sleeper..........

just wait.............many of the acres we have lost are corn acres, and they will likley not come back this year............and the boys trying to get a crop planted the first time are working on corn.................the soya number in March was probably 1-2M too high.........and while a lot of people wanna talk about corn acres sliding to soya...........not going to happen............

 

get ready.........o yeah.........and this wheat thing...........

 

ALL I GOTTA SAY IS LOOK BOTH WAYS BEFORE CROSSING THE STREET.................

 

EDIT:  this huge SA crop has done little to soften things up..........and I have not seen final tally...............this huge Russian and Ukraine crop is not even in the bag yet..........and Frances short comings could easily wipe that out...........add in HRW yields that will prove to be horrible.............and a spring wheat crop that will be 75% at best in US and Canada.........

 

ALL I GOTTA SAY IS LOOK BOTH WAYS BEFORE CROSSING THE STREET.................if markets are left alone, a lot of these so called pro's are going to get hammered................there are a lot of shorts in soya and wheat right now...........BOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM...

 

EDIT2:  its a game of chicken right now.........nobody wants to believe its as bad as it is...........and nobody wants to believe in the game of chicken that is being played.............when the piles are gone we will find out just how much its worth............

0 Kudos
jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Linn Group 5 million corn acres below USDA

So Linn group agrees with me!

0 Kudos
dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Linn Group 5 million corn acres below USDA

pal, too much rain,or too cold or a combo? whatever the #s are for row crops, aint gonna be enough. sold 2010 corn for my highest ever average and too soon(theres that bill thingy again). could happen with my beans too. prayers for all confronted with the PP question and the various flood situations, the latest being the big muddy. 30 miles away from here but possible risk to grain terminals in sioux city. and last but not least,our friends in the parched southwest. cant recall a year with so many weather extremes in so many places.

0 Kudos
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Linn Group 5 million corn acres below USDA

It really is a strange year in N America. I was surprised to see that far north Canada is in a drought. The wet weather that goes over my head usually goes to Montana And Alberta. But there are extremey wet areas in southern Canada. Kansas is in a dividing zone between too wet and too dry. The Delta has been bothe inundated by rain and backed up rivers to the Mississippi. Ohio (wet) vs south central Illinois - which hasn't done too badly?

 

It's always like this to some degree, but the extremes are very extreme this year.

0 Kudos
Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Soya are a sleeper..........

Mizzou, here is another little drop that the bucket will not get, Ontario and Quebec. Quebec is usually an importer or at most self sufficient in corn but this year big flood troubles which i understand impacts some good corn land so they will need more to import.

Ontario used to be self sufficient in a good year and import some many years.

last year we had great yields BUT basis stayed at $1 or more below Chicago for 56 lbs and some call it the great corn robbery as much corn was exported all winter.

Now there is talk corn will have to be brought back to Ontario to get us to harvest, basis is now even and the trade says farmers are not selling. Do they have any left??

Add to that only 80% of corn is planted and much of that into poor ground conditions and some of the worst hit areas are in our south west near Detroit. Where the best corn yields come from so...... Ontario is going to have to compete for some of your corn this year unless excellent weather can bump yields on late planted corn to super record numbers.

Just a drop in the bucket but each drop does impact the level. 

0 Kudos
oldken157096
Contributor

Re: Soya are a sleeper..........

i am just southwest of you.  corn only 70% planted here and basis levels exploding.  50% of Marysville Ethanol reciepts were Canadian all winter/spring.  alot of Canadian corn into Riga Ethano (now GPRE) all winter/spring.  oh ya Suncor expansion complete!  Corn demand in MI/Ontario is outa control.  Corn farmers w ownership holding tight as CME and basis appreciation rewards them well.

0 Kudos