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Honored Advisor

Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

70? 50? 20? 0? .   It ain`t in the bin yet.  Yes the snow melted, only after creating more lodging issues and greasy conditions for harvest.   We were promised "sun" in the forecast, yet Sunday we got 2" of snow, the bulk of this crop is far from being in the bin (at 16% mois with the fans on).  No, this should be in Gartman`s 20 rules of trading "don`t ever ever ever lock in a crop at a loss" , cause if you have to buy out of a contract at a higher price, only a glutton for punishment would do it again.

 

What`s their cost of production?

 

 

 

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9 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

Lock in a historic low while it’s still in the bag
And they wonder why they don’t get taken seriously.

The one factor most advisors never never factor in.
RISK
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

Yep, our "marketing" risks include production risks, and the decisions made before and during the season, not just the risks after it's been delivered.  And, things always change as we go.  What looked like a possible pricing situation last week might not look so good this week, and visa versa, and that applies to about every week of the year.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

Bottom third marketing

 

Another great idea from the clueless.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

JMO but farmers/producers/growers that have actual physical skin in the game should consider the advice given on Market to Market and the Tyne Morgan Show "for entertainment purposes only".   What might be excellent advice for a day trader, might be lousy advice to those with mud head to toe, bloody knuckles and 1/2" grade 70 log chain on the floorboard.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

Gartman is famous for being always wrong. There are funds that subscribe to his newsletter with all the early warning bells and whistles just so they can do the opposite of what he says. His most famous prediction was in late January, 2016, when he wrote that crude oil would never touch $44 again in his lifetime. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2016/01/25/wont-see-44-crude-in-my-lifetime-gartman.html

 

So now people listen very carefully to his predictions, just to go the opposite way !

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Honored Advisor

Re: Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

Just got text...

 

Beans over 14% moisture

 OR 8% damage

 

Subject for rejection.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

That must have been from yesterday, because beans are down 19 cents today.

 

Are you sure that the text didn't say j/k as in "just kidding" at the end ?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

12:59pm today

 

And NO NOT KIDDING

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Senior Contributor

Re: Lock in a loss ...on what BPA?

Well then someone knows some other information to counter that seemingly bullish news for beans. Even in a profit taking environment, beans should not have taken such a clobbering. Fundamental news always lags what the market knows, in many cases because of leaked information. So pay extra special consideration over the next day or so as there is a strong possibility for some kind of bearish news to come out. If by Monday there is no fundamental change to the landscape for beans, then I expect that market to resume its up trade on the crop damage expectations.

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