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ncil
Veteran Contributor

Looking ahead

Dec CBOT corn

13       $5.65

14        $5.45

15        $5.41

16        $5.21

 

So does that mean the expectation is for the next 4 years there will be deflation?

As near as I can tell the US has never deflated the country out of anything.

They have always inflated themselve out of problems.

Paid back loans with cheaper dollars.

And the Fed is into quantitive easing on a massive scale.

Either the country goes bust or buying corn for cheaper  4 years hence looks like a fair gamble.

But greedy me thinks it will get lower before higher and the market can stay irrational longer than i can stay liquid.

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4 Replies
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Looking ahead

ncil,

 

all i know is it's REALLY inverted which means underlying strength. Beans inverted through '16, too.

 

not that i've been around very long (1996). Never seen a grain board THAT backwardated!! 

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Looking ahead

Govt. won't allow corn to become too cheap or too expensive. It is way to much of a worldwide leverage commodity. Too cheap and acreage will slip, too expensive and we lose some export business. No one wants to admit it, but I believe the Govt. has a price window that it needs to maintain for corn. It will have a large swing range, but as long as it stays within the limits, they've got everyone right where they want them. About the time we test a high or low limit, wala, USDA report time to place us right back where the Govt. needs us.
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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Looking ahead

Wish theyd get a bigger window for dairy prices.

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Looking ahead

Jr. I just got some new info. yesterday  . here's the Milk price out look .

 

2013 -- 38.15

2014 --- 15.35

2015 --- 37.75

2016---  14.50

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