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Senior Advisor

Looking for direction

What a way to start a new year.........let's see, the stock market, worst new years open since 1932.....THE WORST in history

in europe......the middle east blood pressures have risen, china is falling like a rock.......and they are getting ready to test

out some new military stuff.....and russia says the U.S. is a threat...the big river in the middle of the country is flooding.....

can't ship grain out nor ship cheap fertilizers we have el nino or is it la nina ?? whatever it is, causing some problems

with dryness....the palm oil is hurting....and talk about hurting, the wheat in the black sea area is now getting a taste of winter,

and the wheat was maybe not ready yet for winter and little snow to protect it.......rains in south america.......rain makes

grain.......even more grain....and the currency in south ameria keeps falling, and keep us high make worse,

china's dollar drops, so makes our beans and meal, chickens and pigs higher priced.


What to do ???


maybe some glimmer of hope........but it aint too shinny right now.........morgan stanley things corn is going to go up....

still a market to feed. their goal is 4.25....which is better than now.  oh, the corn market is africa...seems there

is a shortage looming due to the dry wx (our wx friend).

then the issue of the cold wx in wheat country in russia and her neighbors....maybe some hope ?

then.......there is the wet rat mean you have never read of the wet rat theory ??

rats don't like to get wet, and they are always hungry....and leave a mess wherever they go.......

with everything down.....the rats are looking for dry ground, and knowing that what goes down, usually goes up

some may cycle out of other things such as energy etc, into commody, along with some stock market money.......if  you were a fund manager, you took a good hit the other day, you want things to look good......nothing looks good....maybe use the

"ugliest girl is the best dancer" theory.....look at what doesn't look good, but is cheap and could pay good and fast dividends,

commodities could be just that.....

energy.........that is a tricky is RARE to have energy prices down for a long time......something is bound to go to h#$%

somewhere......either middle east, or the wild card....china flexing it's mussle.

the question, how long will opec keep the pipeline running full blast.....they are not making alot of money....yes they will

"help" the world economy, becasue in the long run it will benfit them....but just how long will they let it go ?

i think our "fracking days" might be about over, if we don't want to see okla become one big sink hole.

also, china and pakistan and india are growing.....they have tasted the sweet taste of energy, and they want oil.


things are so bad anymore......even coffee and sugar are down !!!.....our fiends in the south, rising cotton, i don't know,

if china can't get in order....i don't know.  i don't know tho.....i've noticed more and more cotton goods comming from

pakistan....but problems there too.


so........what to do.........i'm still thinking......but i would think one of these days we should see a rally......if anything

a dead cat bounce ?


but..............but.........if this wx deal comes thru......first, it will help the drought in california....and the stuff i'm seeing

is showing rain in the midwest...and moderate temps.......


could it be we'll be hit with a second "perfict storm"......good crop here, good crop south america.....currency keeps falling,

china just floats about and their yen goes down a bit.....


so there will be too much....and we'll be the highest price in town............sam walton, where are you when we need you ?


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10 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Looking for direction

less than 90 days to April 1


thank goodness

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Looking for direction

Hey ElCheapo, speaking as a gloom and doomer that has been waterboarded for well over 30 years, i`ve learnt now to read too much into the stock market going down big...oh it goes down sometimes 1,000, 2,000 points and you swear that this is the "big one day of reckoning" but it always comes back, for no reason, but as reliable as the sun will rise in the east this morning.


Every downturn in the Dow is a "buying opportunity"..I don`t know if it`s the Fed Plunge Protection Team or the fact a massive amount of people are slaves to it with their retirement but there are powerful invisible forces that keep it proped up. 


I haven`t studied this, but perhaps a good grain market plan would be to not have bins or commercial store grain in the fall, but sell grain hot off the combine and buy the Dow Index.  And that would be in that October area when the Dow is usually ..then your grain would essentially be stored in the Dow, okay in the next year when the Dow would inevitably rally, you cash it in and pay your farm expense.   But hey, if the powers that be are going to give us a guaranteed haven of rising return, we should incorporate it into our grain marketing...why swim against the tide. That said the Dow is currently off over 100 overnight 🙂


* This advice is worth what you paid and not indicative of future proformance.

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Re: Looking for direction


        What is special about April 1st?   Are you implying that you are tired of hearing farmers complain?   I farm and the gloom and doom is so bad I told one he better see a counselor before he did something.  What our grandparents went through in the 30' s was really tough, the 80"s were tough for some and not all.  We lost most of our stuff then, but this still is the greatest country in the world to live in and I may not be as well to do as some of my neighbors, but I am am thankful to GOD that I was born here.  Life is good,  


        Now the negative:  Prices may get a lot worse,  Clinton could be elected president for 2017 and then I will think it couldn't get any worse untill she puts Obama on the Supreme Court.  How about that for a nightmare.   Or Trump is elected and we stop trade with China.  Or my wife changes to Islam and decides to "JIHAD" the family.  Who has time to worry about all of the what "ifs".


       The positive:  ISIS is defeated, people decide to be civil, people fight with their fists instead of guns, drugs are finally eradicated from this country. Actually people quit taking illegal drugs to escape reality, Oh yes, beans go back to $10 or so and everybody sells out and corn goes to $4.50 and again everybody sells out (I am dreaming).  And the coffee shop banter goes back to how the boys and girls are doing in Basketball - This would be a false positive on my Huskers! LOL!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Looking for direction

I'll listen to all the complaining folks want to long as they have a plan to do something about it for the is the perpetual motion machine of decades of doing the same thing and expecting a different result that drives me bonkers


my late father used to have a saying when the son needed some motivation


"do something kid, even if it's wrong"



Senior Advisor

Re: Looking for direction

Cheapo - Man I know what your say'n' here - Here I sit in a flat bottom boat ice fishing = no ice - Dang bluegills are not bitting at all - did catch one crappy on a meal worm - Bass are still hitting the ole spinner bait - not great but don't have anything else to try . What to do what to use ?  RAY any ideas here ????? I'm out of them ! TIA for any info  Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Looking for direction

ECIN, You have hit the proverbial nail on the head.    There are many foks out there fishing........most are using the wrong bait.  Smiley Wink

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Looking for direction

ECIN.....had some guys selling the Jan/July strip out in 2017 today which got them about 3.85 cash.......I think the guys who have 200 bpa corn ground are looking at $750/acre revenue as something to consider...


now, if you do that, and stay long the front end with unsold corn, you have a bullspread position....(long cash/short the backend via those 2017 sales)


IF you get that weather rally this year you will see huge amount of bullspreading and the above works like a champ to maximize your revenue, while at least having "something sold" in the backend if we go for another big crop....


"remember---do something kid?????"

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Honored Advisor

Re: Looking for direction

Come on ... ecin you know better than that.


Out there in the houps, hollors and gravel beds of Houser land there only one bait you need... a shiny tin can. That's all it takes to go fishing for those goat fish you have so many of. With the influx of all the Mexicans and Muslims as a market for what used to be a junk fish, just a week or two work this time of year can keep a fair sized farmer in the black regardless of the price of corn or beans.


It can put to shame a stocker cattle program based on feeding tumble weeds.


This is the time of year that is best for anglering for them, cold weath keeps their odor off of you so your wife and the dobbies will let you sleep in the house at night.

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Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

Re: Looking for direction

Ray, are these guys the same guys that didn't do that a couple of months ago when they could have received about $4.25 in your area by selling out to July 2017?


So what gives now....fear?


$3.85 isn't going to pay the bills even here in southern MN with our lower land costs and (usually) higher basis. as we hit the years 2016 and 2017 without any government supports for those of us in the ARC programs.


Maybe they are right to get afraid now, but with petroleum creeping back up, I would expect the bias to be slightly higher and set a goal that far out of more than $3.85


But I was just a dime or so away from pulling the trigger two months ago on the July 2017 bid, so I can symphacize with that strategy. I just would want fifty cents more to feel good about it.


Of course, maybe they have a way of getting 200 bpa guaranteed.

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