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Senior Contributor

Looks Like

We keep the grains on sale a little longer for the Chinese and the rest of the world. Maybe the dollar topping. Hoping. Interest rate hike would not be good.

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12 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Looks Like

Looks like a golden opportunity to place our bets. The USDA is always wrong about crop estimates or so you guys tell me. So why not double down and reap your harvest off the board?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Looks Like

$%^@   @*^$

 

Thats about all i can say.....this stupid stuff is getting on my nerves.

 

 

first question.......these people that are out looking at the crop and etc, etc.....who are they ?  are they contracted ?  Have you

ever seen one in your field ?  all these years being "out in the sticks".....i've never seen one.

after that question is answered, what is the required training.....and is quality assurance checks made ??

 

 

on the other side tho......they did saying something interesting....they said farm gate price for wheat is going

to be $4.65 to $5.55.......oh boy......just had a elevator quote come in for wheat...... $4.29 a bu.

 

i don't want to talk about it anymore

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Looks Like


The next rumor will be that the Chinese hacked the system, raised all the incoming yield estimates to get the new numbers....heck, maybe they were even seeding clouds...but that got out of hand.

 

Imagine there are a few bankers, and equipment dealers, and others not so happy about this report.  don't miss those days when the market could affect my cash flow enough to hurt.... 

 

how far should one keep short positions on?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Looks Like


@jec22 wrote:

 

how far should one keep short positions on?


Till you get too greedy and get burn't?  Seriously!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Looks Like

I was asking thoses that are short....I have zero short positions.   BTW,

 

FWIW,  don't think this is 2010, but the August 2010 report had Iowa at 179, final yield was around 162.  Il was 180 in the August report, and came in at 157.

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Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: Looks Like

LOL!  Just thought the Chinese conspiracy was a bit much!

 

The usda numbers are a bit of a surprise to me, what else can I say?

 

Have to remember 2012, when usda hung around 168, and the final ended up at 123!

 

Made sales already, but who knows where this will go from here?  Pro Farmer gets in the field and sees something else, can change things again?

 

Still a long way to go till January...

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Looks Like

I would not be a seller at these prices for physical,

I have got tall green corn with less than expected corn on the cob [2" of tip back in a lot of places, more than 50% of the cobs and in the same row, side by side] never seen it this bad, even with burnt up corn in a dry yr. [backyarditis???]

I also wonder what the usual frost scare will do to price

Seems like we always have one and this yr. price might be especially volitile

Frost would affect many of the corn acres that are supposed to bring the average up

And think what a frost would do to all those late planted beans

However, for now we just gotta take our lumps

Hopefully most got sold on old crop when prices spiked

If not, you might have one more kick at the can

Myself, I am waiting for this down side to exhaust itself, and then try to get long, before the frost scare

Strictly on spec

If the price does go up enough, I will add to N/C sales for next yr delivery, from our on farm bins

Bins are a great marketing tool, so long as one does not get married to corn in the bin

And just one more thing

I don't  know if PP was in this report

That may have been a best guess of planted acres

Maybe somebody knows more about PP and the methology that USDA uses at this time of yr

I question if the methology works in a yr. like this or am I just not willing to believe what USDA reported

I would have said 166 plus, before the report came out and then thought the harvest results would have lowered that production number a bit more than previous estimates to maybe 165 and a bit less than 13.5. What do I know??? Seems like very little

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Advisor

Re: Maybe Thee System is trying to Beat the cornies down to $3 to $3.40 cash, then

when she goes back up to $4 they're gonna think they're gettin a heck of a good deal. ( this is kinda like selling cheaper than $4 gas....folks just forget that maybe $2.50 to 3 is Way 2 high 2. ) heck usda is 5 to 10% over on their corn yield....say 25 to 30% over on their bean yield now. course folks won't realize that till they've sold some at the coming $4 corn and $9 beans down the road after this supposed "correction." lol. sounds like the consolidated usa market club is going to try to beat beans into the $8's, ( bet they won't get any or many Cash beans at that...but sounds like they're "hopefull." LOL )
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Advisor

Re: Looks MORE Like, IF

farmers would plant 10 to 15% of it to hay and another 10 to 15% back to pasture.....they'd make some dough selling hay and runnin a few cows. ALSO....afore taken into consideration...Then the grain buyers be coming BEGGING to Buy some Grain. in the meantime, guess Uncle Sam just take care of everyone. Cheap grain keeps those grain farmers on an indian agency Farmer type Welfare payola program. Grain users get cheap product too. ALL is the.Courtesy of Uncle Sam TRULY. just give your tab to your grandkids to Pay later.
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