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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Low Sunspot activity

It`s pretty low and sometimes that correlates into lower crop yields.

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/11/solar-cycle-24-activity-continues-to-be-lowest-in-nearly-200-y...

 

 

Plus if the Great Lakes stay below 8% ice coverage, that historically correlates into lower yields.  All of this isn`t a 100% guarantee of a challenging growing year ahead, but it is a couple things to have in the back of your mind.

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5 Replies
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Low Sunspot activity

Hi Guys...

 

I'm down here in Arizona for a bit yet.  But I had to speak up here.

 

We spent a few days in Oklahoma City last week.  I stayed in the park that I usually do, the one that was devastated by the tornado last May.  The park is recovering, and there were a few good things that came out of the devastation.  But the park is still struggling.  Some of the long term people have not come back, yet, and some of the oil people have moved on due to the low price of crude.  

 

One of the more remarkable things, was that for the first time in the 7 years that I have been in OKC, the reservoirs are full.  For the first time since 2008, when I first took the job in OKC, I actually saw sailboats on Lake Hefner.  During the last 8 years, they were lying in the mud at the bottom of the marina.  I have to wonder how many are still there.

 

Solar Max occurred a little over a year ago on this sunspot cycle, and over the next two years the sun will once again slowly go quiet, with fewer and fewer sunspots as we head for solar minimum 6 years or so from now.  

 

For myself, I do not see a lack of moisture over the US for the next growing season.  And even if we do, at this point, nearly all of the surface moisture issues have been eradicated over the last 6 months.  Personally, I see another good cropping year coming.  I know it's not what you guys want to hear, but it's what I see.  Real serious droughts usually start in the South Central US - TX, OK, KS, NM, WY.  Right now, everything is recharged.  Heat units should still be very good for the next 3 years anyway.  And - as far as record crops go, from what I see, it's all about heat units and moisture.  It looks like an early spring on the way, which is just going to make it that much tougher to have the prices go higher.

 

Before we left for OKC, I spoke with my banker friend.  Just before I got there he had a farmer in his office, trying to figure out how he was going to survive for another year.  He farmed 2500 acres in Minnesota, and my banker told him that to survive he needed to sell a farm or two.  That of course went over like a lead balloon.  And there will be more.  I'm glad I'm out.....and enjoying retirement........

 

Jen

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farmer46
Senior Contributor

Re: Low Sunspot activity

up so late at night,  lol,  I believe what  happens in the Ocean will spell what happens on land here in the midwest.   The recent le Nino is why high amounts of water are in the western plains, but that will end as le Nino ends and the dreaded calm period comes.  I see a very dry period coming, where?  my guess higher plains and maybe some of the corn belt.  Rains ends in May and light only after that. Wow and my guess is based on nothing the love of watching weather.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Low Sunspot activity

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Low Sunspot activity

During a Dalton Minimum, there seems to be a increase of earthquakes and volcanoes.  The underwater volcanoes melt North Pole ice and give the appearance of "man-made global warming".  The El Nino is a warming of a area in the Pacific, i guess the question would be could a underwater volcano keep the El Nino going longer? ...maybe the Sun`s engines will turn on again and spew out oodles of sunspots next month, it`s something we need to keep a eye on (not a unprotected eye though  Smiley Happy   ) 

 

 

That `year without a summer` in 1816 was during a Dalton Minimum...maybe if that continues we`re set up for a cool summer (good for corn) to a point, that could mean a big worthless corn crop with alot of drying expense.  I hope not, if we all took a haircut on yields and didn`t add to the carryout, it would help our pocketbooks alot better than a big crop.

 

Maybe with soil reserves charged a drought is even less likely, however if it`s wet during planting with shallow roots, if it turned off the sprigots later summer, it could be just as bad as starting out dry, like 1988.  What hurt yields in 2012 was the hot nights, it went many nights the temperature never got below 70º.   But on the production side, a drought is the only calvary that could come over the hill and rescue us on prices.  It seems that too wet might affect a few farms here and there, but overall, rain does make grain.

 

Right now, it`s more questions than answers.

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: Low Sunspot activity, we entered Global Cooling in 2009

sunspot activity dropp big starting then.   It's the 206 year bicentential cyle.

things be so darn cold in NA bout 2025 folks won"t believe it ( lack of growing season ).

 

bout 2040 sunspot activity should pick up again.   we'll see

 

 

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