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farmerguy89
Advisor

Low is in for corn?

Certainly starting to look like that on the chart... Your basis may vary. Fsa acre reports seemed to set us up for the bottom
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7 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Low is in for corn?

God, I hope so, but Utterback on USFR said we need more "pain" to put the low in.   It really doesn`t matter at this point a 80% RA guarantee = $650 in revenue  or  200 bu crop coming @ $3.25 in Oct...6 of one, half dozen of another.  Higher prices would help to bail out the insurance companies though.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Low is in for corn?

Be careful. That same thing was said here
not so long ago here.......then it went splat.
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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Low is in for corn?

I forgot to write wheat!

Low wheat price and dry weather starting
To get to me.
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Low is in for corn?

After looking at the latest Farm Service Agency acreage report, Jerry Gulke’s doubts about the feasibility of a 14-billion bushel corn crop this year have only grown.

The report, released today, indicates that farmers planted fewer acres of corn, soybeans, and wheat than assumed. How much fewer? Several million acres, according to Gulke, head of The Gulke Group, who has suspected all season that there were lots of crops that didn’t get planted this year.

He highlighted one analysis that estimated the figure could be as high as 3.5 million fewer acres of corn and 2.5 million fewer acres of soybeans. "That is not impossible," says Gulke. "We just think it’s a bit aggressive."

Regardless of the final numbers, though, he does think the new acreage estimates will make it hard for this year’s crop to achieve bin-busting status without "mega yields."

Listen to his full analysis here:

 

 

He also thinks the acreage numbers may explain the conservative numbers in Tuesday’s USDA report numbers. "They backed off a little, knowing they had in their back pockets the numbers they released today," Gulke told Farm Journal Radio today. "If you knew there were going to be less acreage, what are you going to do? Tell the world you planted 91.6 million acres and that you’re going to get 170 bushels an acre when you know doggone well that it’s going to be something less than that?"

Still, the reduction in acreage should boost corn prices higher—and it did, with corn closing above last week’s high, with $3.656 for September delivery and $3.777 for December. "I don’t know if it’s enough to take us out of the doldrums, but it’s sure a lot better than someone saying we planted 2 million more acres than we thought. Then we’d be in trouble."

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vrbuck
Advisor

gulke slings it either way

If the January report comes out and it says we added one million acres Gulke will say "he knew it all the time, and postured he client for the bear fall"  Gulke seems to talk both sides and turn out right even when he is wrong.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Low is in for corn?

Hey Bucky, are you and gulke brothers then?
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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Low is in for corn?

What are you doing following me into this thread mt? No crazies allowed.. Irony is pretty funny.

But I believe gulke doesn't know anything like everyone else.. It's all a guess... But he has given some bad reccomendations.. Like sell corn during harvest 2013 while it kept going lower: there was some big money to be made by waiting: a dollar or more here.
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