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Advisor

Low on Daylight

Due to all the factors this is simply a Short growing season for the Midwest. 

Even w normal or late frost these are lower yield crops this year 

Expect 10 to 25 percent tip back on corn And just not many good beans they are Low on daylight. 

Say Maybe 80 million acres of corn harvested at say 150 to 155 bu per. 

Beans,  say 34 bu per acre.... USDA at their 48 bu is a Total Ruse.  LoL. 

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re:You can have 900 pods, you can have 1200 pods and then....

You can have 900 pods, you can 1200 pods, and then you can have two beans per pod or three beans per pod.  And then again, you can have 2000 beans per lb or 2600 beans per lb.

The thing about beans per pod and beans per lb depends on what kind of plant you have to set those beans and fill those beans even if you get the weather.  Beans planted a month late and only knee high just don't have the where with all to set & fill the same number & size of beans as waist high beans.

At the end of the day, what counts is how many 60 lb units you have.

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Advisor

Re: Re:You can have 900 pods, you can have 1200 pods and then....


@rickgthf wrote:

You can have 900 pods, you can 1200 pods, and then you can have two beans per pod or three beans per pod.  And then again, you can have 2000 beans per lb or 2600 beans per lb.

The thing about beans per pod and beans per lb depends on what kind of plant you have to set those beans and fill those beans even if you get the weather.  Beans planted a month late and only knee high just don't have the where with all to set & fill the same number & size of beans as waist high beans.

At the end of the day, what counts is how many 60 lb units you have.


A lot of beans this year were 3" to 6" high on the 4rth of July. 

Let's just see how they yield. 

Also I highly Doubt there will be 80 million acres of beans harvested.   USDA spins it..   But they seem to " spin " whatever for their consolidated market spin needs.  LoL. 

If there are 80 million acres harvested at my 34 bu per beans total say 2.5 to 3 billion bu....be bout right.  MO. 

We'll see. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Re:You can have 900 pods, you can have 1200 pods and then....

Low pod counts can still surprise you with a good fill period but not to boomer levels. Current moisture levels sort of argue against that, although it isn't over and it is spotty.

As far as corn goes, some of the best corn people in the business gave opinions about late planted corn's potential under new genetics/intensity and said they really didn't know, but quite probably materially less than potential.

BTW, I think we'll see quite a lot less than than 80 ma harvested for grain.

For now I won't argue against PF's yield number around 163- not that there's a great record for their methodology- it just sounds reasonable.

76 X 163= 12.4ish. Haven't a clue how the market would price that. Depends on how it is realized and whether it even cares a great deal given horrible demand news. Somewhat higher than this, though.

 

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