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Lows are close

For technical reasons I won't discuss we should be close to a buy able low here. The conservative play would be to buy the close above the previous day's highs. I believe our grain is on a fire sale and end users are going to buy by the fistful. Once I get my signal I believe selling puts would be a profitable strategy.
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5 Replies

Re: Lows are close

Well, you've got equality of waves 1 and 5 in SX, which I find a little interesting.


But it is also pushing down through the 200dma and I find that concerning given the fund length there.


Not really interested until it proves something on the upside. Even though the market structure of W and C is a lot different I'm not interested there either, unless S gets cleaned up a little.


You may turn out to be about right in SX today though- as funds sort of either need to defend their positions successfully, here and now, or take a trip to the vomitorium.


I would posit that there are plenty of buyers ready to take ownership of those positions on the way down.

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Re: Lows are close

BTW, don't underestimate the importance of end of month window dressing.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Lows are close

I hope you people are right. Things are getting
Downright mean and ugly out here.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Lows are close

This is just a little west of Cheapie...


 Midland Marketing Cash Bids - 10 Minute Delay, Subject to Change Without Notice

Name Notes Cash Price Basis Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis

North - Palco, Zurich, Plainville, Natoma - Priced per bushel except Sunflowers priced per cwt
.Wheat Cash $2.48 September 2016 367-6 -6-4 -120
.Wheat New Crop 2017 $3.30 July 2017 434-4 -5-2 -105
.White Wheat Cash $2.48 September 2016 367-6 -6-4 -120
.White Wheat New Crop 2017 $3.30 July 2017 434-4 -5-2 -105
Corn Cash $2.42 September 2016 304-0 -7-6 -62
Corn New Crop 2016 $2.46 December 2016 315-6 -5-0 -70
Milo Cash $2.12 September 2016 304-0 -7-6 -92
Milo New Crop 2016 $2.2075 December 2016 315-6 -5-0 -95
Soybeans Cash $8.51 November 2016 950-6 -13-4 -100
Soybeans New Crop 2016 $8.36 November 2016 950-6 -13-4 -115
Sunflowers New Crop 2016 - Delivered Goodland $17.15


These are the prices I have to deal with

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Lows are close

82 cents for storing wheat for 10-11 months


time to stop thinking how cheap the front end flat price is and time to start focusing on "investment opportunity" that can be had for storing the crop and selling the carry....

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