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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

Don Roose "Depends what side of market you`re on"   Smiley Happy  Risk premium coming out.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnTUEzh8iAc

It got down to 34° and 33° last night, I checked Alexa every hour on the hour last night.  In the low ground there was ice crystals on alfalfa, have to check how the beans on south end of county fared later.

16 Replies
Wind
Advisor

Re: M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

Down to 40* here last night.  Good to see that sun shine today.  On the market side, my wife bought some eggs at Aldi's the other day, .86 cents a dozen!!  Poor farmer, that is a little more than 7 cents an egg.  Even at 25 cents an egg would be a bargain. 

Corn and beans looking good, lots of Derecho corn in the bean fields, tiles  are dripping some, still below normal rain for April and May.  Hopeful and Thankful. 

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

The old saying that “corn loves a dry June” is probably more like May these days, with earlier planting.

Awesome potential out there if the rest of the season cooperates some.

 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

I’m still mad that Aldi’s contract that had them selling eggs at .48/doz ran out about a year ago and for a while they shot up to .98!!!!

They’re killin’ me!

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

Yeah, nutritionally eggs are a bargain at any price.

But given my wife’s bad cholesterol news she’s buying those expensive nutritionally enhanced eggs for $2.50 and only eating a few a week.

I eat lots of the cheap ones.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

We buy $3 eggs at small farmettes, just use in cakes, pancakes occasional omelette so don`t use a ton of em something to keep the money "local".  I`ve heard the store bought eggs can be a month or older, kind of like my eggs as fresh out the chicken`s butt as possible.  But eggs in store (loss leader) or $3 in the country are one of the few bargains. 

We have the potential of 300 bushel yield corn wide spread area this fall, but looking at the cornbelt as a whole, there`s issues out there from prevent plant, re plant, too wet, too dry, N leeching.  When all the debits & credits are ciphered it`ll be interesting if there`s a 170 national yield?

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

BA where is the replant? where is the too wet? Hardbody is right lots of potential. With a cool damp July, a nat yield of 190 is play.  With a dry June and then a hot dry early July, well a 140 is still in play. June doesn't matter as long as it isn't too wet. More accurately, a cool damp pattern needs to kick in right after the Solstice on 6/21  with today's genetics and planting dates. None of the fringe is screwed up to bad (it is the fringe after all) and I states plus MN and NE are in pretty great shape for Memorial Day.

Beans only need August precip at this point but they are off to a tremendous start everywhere, except maybe ND.

They will likely find the lost 4 mil acres in the June report, most if not all of it in corn, which creates a huge potential for corn and beans to go very different ways after June 30 in terms of price. All conjecture of course, but with a near perfect spring in most areas, I'll always bet the American Farmer plants it all, even the road right of way :-)

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

Hey Time, I haven`t had boots on the ground & eyeballs in the field in Miseroui and Illinoise  but on the other site there`s pictures of flooding and talk of re plant.  And the DeKodies some got smoked with freeze. Here`s a pix from the other site, in I think North DeKody , that fringe always manages to be a spoke in our annual overproduction.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

Small point but needing reminded...... Take the crop total anything over 13.. say 15 and subtract the corn belt production you mention..... 

Only an I state within rock throwing distance of des moines or Chicago can believe the corn belt raises all the corn.  Last time I figured it --even from their projections, it was about half fringe corn.  There are fringe states all over that outproduce the corn belt on a per acre yield contest.  Top 4 being Arizona, Idaho, Oregon and Washington in 2019

A good friend reminds me once in a while that Iowa doesn't supplies its own demand, but depends on that fringe across the mighty mo to help out.  The biggest example of backyard itus every year is what corn belt folks say

Top 11 states on planted acres in 2019. in millions------ so we pull fringe out of that Ks, SD, ND, and I will ask you who raises the other 35 million acres?   Can that 56.7 million acres in the corn belt produce a crop that supplies domestic needs. Simple answer is no.   56.7 million at 170(2019) average barely beats 9.7 b bushels.  So hell ya, corn belt you do it all.

Washington, Texas, Kansas, Okla, California, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Oregon, arizona, etc etc

1 Iowa 13.50
2 Illinois 10.50
3 Nebraska 10.10
4 Minnesota 7.80
5 Kansas 6.40
6 Indiana 5.00
7 South Dakota 4.35
8 Wisconsin 3.80
9 North Dakota 3.50
10 Missouri 3.20
11 Ohio 2.80
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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: M2M. Corn: correction, collapse or catastrophe?

This is my beans in the low ground after the frost, the neighbor had corn which was black...we`ll see

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