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Honored Advisor

MARKET COMMENTARY

MARKET COMMENTARY December 26, 2013

 

By Raymond Jenkins

 

Well, the “other shoe” dropped today, which is growing concern over rejections of DDG’s for the presence of MIR162. China has been buying as much as 40% of US DDG production in recent months, so anything that slows that supply chain is going force more product back into the US domestic feed markets. This set off a bit of a chain reaction in corn futures, which lost 6-8 cents today. Soybeans took a tumble as well, down 13-17 cents on various interpretations of the forecasts in South America.

 

Although our nearby basis bids today are much more a reflection of our plant issues and (now) plentiful December corn supply, we get the sense there is a lot of interest in sales for delivery after the first of the year.

 

Getting back to $4.50 cash bids is going to be difficult, giving the changing nature of the market as we enter the new calendar year.

 

You may want to consider dropping your price targets

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12 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: MARKET COMMENTARY

My targets have already been set, isn't that what put protection does for you?

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Senior Advisor

E15.....

Corn is cheap.........china is playing games

Why the heck don't we go to E15

Grow it and use it here

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Honored Advisor

Re: MARKET COMMENTARY

Now I can not think of a single excuse for the blatant irresponsibility of the seed co(s),

Seed sales staff, farmers, AND especially the grain merchandisers that put that unapproved product in the China bound ships.

 

Come on here they are the 800 gorilla in the room. # 1 customer in the export arena and you send them an unapproved raw ingredient(s)?

 

I don't care if everybody else takes it,

they don't and you send it anyway?

 

Just what part of stupid are you?

 

I did not plant it but yet it is apparent I am going to be penalized for it anyway.

 

Nobody learn anything from Starlink? What's going on here?  greed, stupidity, no quality controls, just lazy, ...what?

 

Nothing like giving them a legal, bonified, no recourse reason to get out of that higher priced grain they bought.

 

Sign me up in that class action lawsuit.

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Senior Advisor

Re: MARKET COMMENTARY

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Honored Advisor

Re: MARKET COMMENTARY

Not hardly

 

She was promoted into a position to go to their Gulf shipping facility and get them on the stick down there.

 

In her company it was a port workers problem...they didn't give a s**t, just filled ships. Even though the product had been segregated till it got there.

 

They had a lab down there to do quallity testing and weren't doing that either.  It was a shippers problem and was isolated to the facility that physically loaded the ships. They just "filled them up" didn't really care which bin they put the incoming product in or which ones they took it out of as long as it "looked the same". A real third world mentallity down there.

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Honored Advisor

Re: MARKET COMMENTARY

Without getting too specific these were processed IP ingredients. They were not raw bulk grains. But they are relatively large quantities.

 

This is why I blame the shippers as public enemy # 1, It is their job from the first scale to the receiving port to keep this stuff straight.

 

The size and scope of this shows a total breakdown or probably closer to a "so what attitude"

 

Totally unsatisfactory.

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Honored Advisor

Re: MARKET COMMENTARY

There are obviously many folks who would like for farmers to drop their price targets.  I'll bet they are having some pretty nice holiday parties congratulating themselves..............

Senior Contributor

Re: MARKET COMMENTARY

I'm surprised the Chinese aren't turning these rejected DDG's into dog food and shipping it back to the US!! MY,My it's already cooked!!Smiley Surprised

I wonder if all this rejection of grain and now DDG's is a Chinese response to the news of the 3 Chinese Nationals attempting to steal Pioneer (Monsanto) seed traits?  They did happen almost synonymous.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: MARKET COMMENTARY

MARKET COMMENTARY December 27, 2013

By Raymond Jenkins

Corn staged a bit of a recovery after yesterday’s sharp losses buoyed by good export numbers ( 58.2 million old crop and 20 million new) out this morning and a weaker dollar.

 

A cautious attitude pending the January final crop production report due out in January and ongoing talk out of China regarding rejections of corn and DDG shipments continued to weigh on the market today.

 

At the end of the session the March contract managed to close 1 1/4 higher at $4.27 ½.

 

Exports of old crop Soybeans were reported at 750,000 metric tons, not a stellar as corn exports but still decent.

 

Some suspicions in the market of possible cancellations by the Chinese of U.S. bean cargos in favor of South American cargos and weather models predicting better weather for southern Brazil and Argentina could weigh on the old crop bean market, but for today, January beans were able to recover much of yesterday’s losses closing 12 3/4 higher at 13.31 1/2. 

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