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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

MAYBE.......

http://panoramademercado.wordpress.com/

 

o and QE3, yes it happened yesterday, actually it was QE3lite, it came in the form of three years of 0% money...........we could still see a full blown QE3 later on.........http://community.agriculture.com/t5/Marketing/factors/td-p/157317

 

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/cold-dryness-quality-stoke-black-sea-grain-fears--4090.html

 

maybe SA comes up short and buyers continue to show up at our doorstep........

 

maybe the Black Sea Region can't hack it anymore and buyers start showing up at our doorstep.........

 

 currentpreviousactualprojecteddifference
 yearyear%%%
 salessalesof previousof previousof previous
wheat777000103310075.21053141750.21053141
corn1051500110500095.15837104905.158371041
soya955700137170069.6726689585-15.32733105

 

 

you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink...........draw your own conclusions........

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8 Replies
jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: MAYBE.......

Maybe you'll get what you want.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: MAYBE.......

which is?

 

EDIT:  market could care less what I want............and just to clear the air...........I am simply laying out what I see............I have stated more than once I thought 2008 was all air and corn should have never went over $5.25ish.........there is a line on the chart it should have never crossed because the fundamentals were not there..........in summer of 2010 I saw something totally different, thus my position since then..........

 

will this run end, sure it will, but does that end look like a $3 or a $5.........I surely don't know..........fact of the matter is, the world is consuming more of everything, recession or not..........I have stated many times I think the next several decades, maybe the next century will be defined by a commodity/nat resource war that will be a gyration of overshooting too far either direction while the world finds is "carrying" capacity.........the US standard of living may have peaked and we could very well slide as others come up in their standards.........its the idea of a total sum..........

 

now heres some food for thought, most thought they would never hear from me............but if we are due for a correction, it could be coming this year..........maybe late June or July.............if anyone of you followed a thread Tara and I sparred about back last March or April about this whole idea of 2008 all over again, I told him to think about 2010 and 2011 as the run up and 2012 as the equivalent of 2008............still think that is a possibility...........now does a correction mean $2 corn..........not necessarily............but a correction to below Cost of Production.............IMO we are now into a sharp cycle period of up and down...........like mentioned before you need to manage far enough ahead to stay in the game, but not so far ahead of the game you become out of synch..........IMO I also think that in the next 10 years we could test all time highs in grains more than once and might see new highs............we could also see years of at or below COP........

 

and one more spin, if anyone has heard ET from ISU talk, several historical charts dating back nearly 150 years (historical weather data goes that far back, yield data was overlayed clear back to the 20's) show cycles of weather that have made for periods of relatively consistent yields (16 years) followed by longer periods (22 I think) of erractic and highly variable yields............these charts, and his interpretation is that this has happened 4 or so times in history and we have now finished a 16 year run of relatively consistent yields and are headed for a decade or two of erratic and variable yields due to this weather cycle...........its pretty compelling to think about how well it lines up, almost to the year over the last 150 years..........and a real monkey wrench in this pattern is, that in the consistent periods our yields trend and hug the potential yield line (which is also trending up).........and in the erratic periods our yields trend much flatter and fall under that potential yield line, BUT BUT BUT, ever so often, as expected we reach up and touch that line...........take all this and throw in ever increasing demand and you get............well draw your own conclusions, but if you thought you needed rolaids to get thru the last few years you might wanna get a prescription for something alittle more stout...........

 

FYI, just food for thought.........

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junior359
Contributor

Re: MAYBE.......

saw on DTN's before the bell this morning corn sales and shipment are 7%  and 4%   ahead of the 3year average pace. Goes right along with what you been saying MT.     Any thoughts on acres for this year I can't help but think I see a pattern that don't look good for anyone i.e.  really wet eastern and really dry western belt anything I seen so far looks like this will continue for long time???? thoughts

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: MAYBE.......

Alright I see your point I sure thought we would have some kinda deflation period in here before the big run into this summer. But the debt ceiling, and now the feds 0%  promise has pushed the inflation thingy very hard.

 

Sometimes getting what you want is more than you need.

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hfarm
Contributor

Re: MAYBE.......

Thanks for reading the tea leaves MT

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: MAYBE.......

Anything over $6 corn and $12 beans cash for new 12 is a sale in my book.  7 and 13 on last of old crop

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: MAYBE.......

Why not wait for 8 and 14....:( lol
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425Cat
Advisor

Re: MAYBE.......

Not saying we won't go there necessariliy. What scares me is a black swan event that could trump even the best of fundamentals.

Gotta take some cookies off the table when the plate is passed.

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