MArket top, first of year?

[hardnox604008]

You can't be confident of anything in a manipulated market, but my confidence is growing that the "all one market" topped on the first day of the year.

The Wall Street scammers took maximum advantage of their friend Ben's coverage of their backs to book out massive bonuses all the way through to the last day of the year.

It doesn't matter if they all get skewered trying to get out of a very small door at the same time- they still get to keep the bonuses and they have a whole year to figure out how to dress up 2011.

If it held it would be a 100% perfect bullseye on the 30 year commodity cycle.

As I said, this is not a free market so it is foolish to have much confidence in any opinion- if Ben chooses to light the specs back up with QE 3 etc., then all bets might be off. Or, they might not- he might even get a surprise and find out that the addict's tolerance is growing and the old dose just doesn't give as much kick any more.

We shall see.

h

[jdmcfarm1]

been about every other year for nearly tops in Jan...last year was top til harvest so using dumb luck this year high will not be a Jan high

[vrbuck]

I have heard from someone else that markets alternate highs.  Since the high came last year in January we aren't looking at a jan high this year. 

The chart pattern says different, it says sell. 

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

By "all one market" are you talking about essentially shorting the dollar via whatever liquid asset you choose to own instead?  If you mean something else, please explain.

If the idea is the dollar will stabilize starting now, what accomodation are we making for world economic growth and specifically for the Chinese economy?

In other words, I dont' know but I'm not betting the price of oil is going to stay here and if it rises, that destabilizes the dollar or at least devalues it, it would seem to me.

I'd be the last to say we won't have volatility as the year progresses.  On the contrary, it would seem to me the world economy is so fragile and trends are so quickly derived and hyped where there is little support for them that we are likely to continue to be volatile and perhaps as much to the upside as down.

In short, I'm not selling any more grain for the moment (although my goal is to be sold out and delivered by July every year).

[hardnox604008]

Hi Jim,

Yes, essentially the "all one market" refers to the chilling positive correlations between stocks, commodities and non-dollar currencies that was engendered by the continuous fed induced spec frenzy of the last 20 months.

I think you have to be long the dollar here- particularly against the euro, and that there is good cause to be looking for tops in the stock inices and commodities. the dollar has problems, the euro and yen have more. Commodity currencies- cando, aussie, kiwi, are overvalued.

Bullishness and complacency are ubiquitous across all asset classes which alone ought to send one's contrarian radar a jingle or two.

On the other hand, "don't fight the fed" remains a reasonable caution.

Best, h

[Faust100F]

Well it is my "annual" visit to this site!  I see that a few have survived the year!  I still have some shovels left for those of you who need to go out behind the barn and dig your graves.   What has changed?  Nothing when I indicated that the falling dollar was required to raise grain prices last year, that still holds!  So all the money you paid your "advisors" who scared you into churning your accounts so they could make fees, hope you learned a lesson.  The dollar is going down further, but there is one little problem on the horizon!  That is China and the developing "third world".  Right now China is experiencing inflation and unemployment (people are headed for the country) and it has 64,000,000 housing units (new) sitting empty along with thousands of factories.  In short (things are slowing down in the third world).  China continues to flee the dollar by selling treasuries and buying minerals from Australia and feed grains from the US and Brazil which continue to increase in price as the dollar deflates.  When China's stash of dollars (which are falling in value daily) is gone, you will be hearing a great sucking sound as farmers in this country pucker up as grain prices start retracement.  We have had a great run, I have referred to this as the "Golden Age" of Agriculture  but it may be short lived.  The good fortune of those farmers who were able to hold on to their land after the farm depression of the 80's are now winners.  But . . . we all know that land has no value to "real" farmers other than as an asset that allows them to do what they do . . . farm!  Til next year!  Have a great year!  John

[Faust100F]

One more thing.  The Baltic Dry Shipping Index is again near its low!  That means that shipping is again slowing down, with ships at anchor all over the world.  So take the "puffing" going on in Washington with a grain of salt.  Because we have reached "self preservation time" $14,000,000,000,000 in debt which we will never be able to pay back, this country is Broke.  Illinois could be raising property taxes 60% to remedy budget problems and fund public employee pensions.  I hope most of you are digging in your heels when it come to the Spendthrift mentality that has existed in this country for three decades.  It is time to get our house in order.  It is going to be a lot worse a year from now.  Good luck. John

[Red Steele]

Google China gold imports, and see how many ton that country imported last year. It is pretty staggering.

So along with iron, copper, corn, soybeans, hardwoods.....the list goes on and on.

And even with all of that going on, we still have a trade imbalance.

I think you are right about a year from now....we may have a hard time keeping from slipping into a police state to stop the riots.

Somehow we have to get America back to manufacturing, we have to tighten our belts on foreign imports, and end the ridiculous washington policy of trying to print our way out of debt.

$6 corn looks pretty good until you realize you could have sold it for $2.50 ten years ago and purchased $250/ounce gold. Gold at $1400/ounce would seem to indicate $14.00 corn to come out the same. $6 corn may be like the  90 cent corn was twenty years ago.

Hard to believe the times we live in.

[johnaa]

  Grayson interviewing the Fed's attorney about their "influence" on futures, stock markets and possible frontrunning and insider trading.    He's entertaining, grilling the weasel attorney is funny. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXmNpdYpfnk&feature=channel 

[Palouser]

The assumptions underlying your perspective are quite interesting. And I'm not convinced that China has any interest in liquidating $$$$. Their interest lies in us having a healthy economy.

China is importing a large fraction of the raw materials in the world. They are accomplishing two objectives as a result. They are building infrastructure for a bigger and more efficient economy and the materials become value added exports. This was the formula for empires that lasted longer than we've been a nation.

The idea of rebuilding manufacturing in the US runs counter to our policies since Reagan. Wages are stagnating or falling. To compete on wage scales would mean paying much less than now based on current policies (which would threaten our living standards and our economy). China is raising living standards. Either that or we would have to invest in basic research and deployment to a much greater extent than our businesses are willing to do now. That's what China does - and what Germany does, the leading exporter after China. The German government has many policies for implementing technology and training workers. By the lights of many in the US that is 'socialism'. So, kiss manufacturing goodbye for a new era in the US. If we can't invest and deploy new technology here we have little new to export other than services (much of that financial, and we know what they've done for us lately).

As for riots, one could easily make the argument that if the US had not acted to keep the economy from going into a black hole we'd have riots now. Deficit spending is a strictly bi partisan phenomena. Deficit spending in an emergency has always been acceptable. There is a difference between maintaining liquidity in  an emergency and deficit spending out of habit, which our two great parties have both depended on. The question is, when is it safe to reverse fiscal course to maintain value. It can be done, and done very easily, but it has consequences. Volcker engineered it during the Reagan era after being appointed by Carter.