Here's a couple photos of what things look like on the tour in central Indiana. Ouch. Here's a little more from the early stops on the tour this morning.
Day 2: Indianapolis, IN to Bloomington, IL
At 5:25am:
Before I get into the crop tour stuff, I notice the farm markets are down hard, overnight. Europe's debt crisis and a wetter forecast seem to be putting the markets in a corrective mode. Meanwhile, Citigroup announced Tuesday that it will up its 3-month price forecast to $18.75 from $16.50. Now, let's get into the crop tour thoughts.
Crop Tour Thoughts:
The cropscouts on this tour have been through the northern part of Ohio and the eastcentral counties in Indiana. Today, we start in Indianapolis work our way to Bloomington, IL. Now, I know we are out here a little early, trying to figure out this year's crop. Considering that the grain on the ears of corn are still filling, and the soybean plants are either just finishing up flowering or putting on pods, there's no doubt there is still time left for the crops to finish. But, one thing we can gauge is the health of these crops.
There are a few things that stick out for me. One happened at a gas station in a small town in Indiana. A local (not a farmer), sitting in the station drinking coffee, told me the area's sweetcorn this year was bad. He then grabs the latest edition of the local paper and says, "This tells it all right here." The paper's headline read: Not So Sweet. Under the headline ran a big photo of an ear of sweetcorn that had very few kernels and appeared very short.
The other two things that stick out about this crop are the height and vibrancy (lack of it). Looking at this crop, reminds me a lot of a boxer with buckling knees. Let me illustrate my point and then I'll get back to cropscouting.
Another reporter on this tour noticed this first. But, when you can see people towering over corn in the Midwest, in July, I don't think that is good.
Although we have seen some soybean plants that were as tall as hip-high, this is the norm. Size doesn't always matter in July, for beans. But, we are just seeing way too short of crops. And it's not shown in this photo. But, man are there a lot of weedy fields this year. A lot of fields that even look like the farmer just threw his/her hands up and let them go. I wouldn't be concerned about these short crops, if it wasn't so dry. But, their chances of growing taller and putting on pods are dwindling with the lack of moisture.
And this is my favorite photo, so far. I call this the "What could have been" photo. This ear of corn just looks like it would have had a normal life if it could have had moisture. The ear looked like it was doing all of the right things but growing.
We have a few traders, brokerage firm-types and a few meteorologists on the tour. The weather guys don't see much measurable rain coming, the traders talk about how the avg. yield number needs to be lowered. And I'm just a farmboy at heart. I feel worse and worse for the farmer, after coming out of these corn and soybean fields. This is definitely a year to remember. In fields that look like they will do over 100 bu./acre, I find myself saying "I bet a lot of farmers would take this field this year." And that is not saying much. See slideshow of Ohio crops.
So, onward and upward my friends.
Mike
