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12-22-2018 05:25 PM
Question for soybean farmers. Are most if not all of you in either the PLC or ARC Co. programs? If so, how is this going to work? The statutory reference price is $8.40 so if the market year average price is below $8.40 you get payed on that difference based on 85% of your base acres and historic yields.
For example: let’s say you farm 2000 acres on a corn bean rotation and your average bean yield is 50 bushels per acre and this year you harvested 50,000 bushels of beans from your 1000 acres. First Trump sent you a check for $41,250 as soon as you reported your production. Now you are setting waiting patently for your next $41,250 held up by Trump’s government shut down. If your PLC next fall USDA is going to payout the difference between $8.40 and the market price. (Which by USDA’s figures was decreased $1.65 by the trade war.) If that was true, then the projected market year price dropped from $8.60 to $6.95. That puts the USDA on the hock for ($8.40 - $6.95) or $1.45 per bushel. Worst case you sold out of the field at $7.80 average price plus Trump’s $1.65 that’s $9.45. Plus, if the USDA wasn’t all wet to start with then the PLC payment could be as much as 1000 acres time 85% or 850 acres at 50 bushels per acre times $1.45 or $61,625. Averaged back over 50000 bushels that’s $1.23 so now we are up to $10.68.
No wonder the Soybean farmers are backing Trump. Money talks and the BS walks.
12-22-2018 06:46 PM
I did not realize that we have had a market year average under $8.40 in beans to get a payment. No payment is projected yet, but it is going to have to drop more to get us there. No payment here on beans this last year and with the yields we had this fall, we won't get an arc payment next year either. Not many farmers are signed up for PLC in beans. So it will affect very few.
12-24-2018 04:40 AM
"Trump's government shutdown" ? The Congress that already approves over $4 trillion in Federal spending per year refuses to allocate $5 billion for a wall to help stop illegal entry into the country in the most difficult areas to police for the border patrol, and that's Trump's fault ?
When does it become "Congress' government shutdown" ?
12-24-2018 08:02 AM
As we discuss on the forum page, the President is almost certain to be a one-termer (for doing the right things, just that +half the country is spoiled brats) you can`t go long having >half the country riding in the wagon while < half the country is tasked with pulling the wagon and the > sitting in the wagon get their voting information from Stephen Colbert and Alec Baldwin. "Reality" is what > half the country says it is and they are riding in the wagon.
12-24-2018 09:31 AM
I`ve said before that like the oldtimers of 30 years ago, "we needed a depression to reset things" In 1990 we were scheduled for our 60yr depression, but the Fed pulled levers and we postponed it. Now we concentrated the wealth, made the bubbles bigger, debt deeper kicking the can down the road. A generation was spoiled instead of being educated, now they`re swiping right on Tinder, that`s that generation`s claim to fame and they figured out how to vote and hold voting parties just like their Oscar viewing parties...it`s a game like Fortnite for them.
Ben Franklin predicted that the country would last 200 years and end when voters figured out how to pick the taxpayer`s pocket...he wasn`t too far off.
12-27-2018 02:26 PM
Most of the base acres for soybeans are enrolled in ARC-CO. But, with respect to PLC, the reference price is $8.40 per bushel, so a program payment is max($8.40 - MYA price,0). In this case, USDA currently projects for the 2018/19 marketing year average price to be $8.60 per bushel and no PLC program payment as it is greater than the PLC support price. Highly highly unlikely we see $6.95 for a MYA U.S. soybean price.
The final soybean revenue will reflect:
Cash Price of beans sold
ARC-CO or PLC Payment (Not guaranteed)
Return from Crop Insurance (Not guaranteed)
Marketing Gains from Futures/Forward (Not Guaranteed)
WASDE $8.60 soybeans: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf