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Senior Contributor

MT it's getting closer to your yield.

11 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: MT it's getting closer to your yield.

You can't shrink what was never there to begin with......................

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Veteran Advisor

Re: MT it's getting closer to your yield.

Thanks for the post Jed. The media has made this fairly average crop into a "bin buster" since June. Even if MT's numbers were right, USDA would never release it. 

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Senior Advisor

Re: MT it's getting closer to your yield.

this crop is mid to low 150's

 

so depending on what harvested acres you wanna use

 

155 @ 81 is 12.56

 

155 @ 80 is 12.4

 

152 @ 81 is 12.31

 

152 @ 80 is 12.16

 

Wonder if Ray G likes his crow smoked or deep fried cause hes going to be eating a metric FK ton of it

 

i know locally all the corn fields look like its October, but corn is testing 20-26.

 

I will nose into some next week if the rain holds off.

 

heck we got another 2.5 inches this weekend on top of about 1.5 inches every week for the last month.

 

its muddy here.

 

I personally hope the rain stops NOW

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: MT it's getting closer to your yield.

The math and their computers make a lot of sense.

So 164.8 on their 500k less acres = 13.3 Bil crop. That is a LONG way from 12.2 :-)

 

The way you posted this I thought they were showing a decline. They are not, merely keeping

ti where they had right in the first place. That isn't very bullish.

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Senior Contributor

Re: MT it's getting closer to your yield.

Time will tell I guess.  I still think we are in that 13 to 13.2 billion range.  I am just hoping it isn't any higher.  Not many yield results posted on the other site but a couple here and there.  Definitely not record yields but I think a lot of it is slightly better than guys had been thinking.  Got one plot result out of central Illinois with the top yield at 275.  Plots don't mean much and I'm not entirely sure where it was.  I think somewhere around Springfield.  If we come in at 13.2 that is still potentially bullish.  It all comes down to demand.  I am more than a little concerned about demand.  I don't see it falling off a cliff but it could be light enough to really grow the carryout number.  We shall see.  I think we are a week to ten days away from much activity here.  There are some beans that will go in a few days when it dries up.  Safe harvest to all!

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Senior Contributor

Re: MT it's getting closer to your yield.

Maybe we will see that number in October with more harvest results, but I don't expect the USDA to change the numbers in the September report.  I don't see a reason why to do it.  Harvest isn't early this year.  The conditions have not really nationwide changed.   My worry isn't demand as much as farmers in the bad spots complaining of really poor crops and then being surprised with yields being considerably higher than they thought.  That would be extremely bearish.  Well, in 3 hours, will know if I was right or wrong.  

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Honored Advisor

Re: MT it's getting closer to your yield.

Jed how are the southern beans looking?

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Senior Contributor

Re: MT it's getting closer to your yield.

SW they are all over the board.
The first cut I heard 35-40
Since then a lot better, I cut 500 acres that I'm not even going to say how good but they were better than any of the big "northern" yields I alyays hear of. Several acres of those being cut "here".
The rest of the crop that's later planted isn't going to be as good though.
Thats just for the small area I'm in, as far as the state there's a lot of pp and a whole lot of really late planted beans that aren't any good at all.
Rice is off by 20 bu if not more.
Corn is off a little. So little of it it's hard to get a handle but I think 200 area might be the best with a lot under that but I'm really not sure on it yet.
Grain Sorghum is off, worst I've heard is 60 bu and best is 140's but almost none of that.
I was hoping we stay in the 120 range but I don't think that's going to happen now. Needed 140 average to make things come out ok.

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Honored Advisor

Re: MT it's getting closer to your yield.

Thanks Jed,

 

I think that sounds like where we will be..... except no rice...

 

Beans we are down on acres and they stressed a little more than usual.... fact is the corn was late and we weren't able to get the water too the beans as soon as usual..  But when I walk them we are loaded tighter with pods than usual so we will see...

 

corn can't be great, color wasn't as good as usual and too many water issues... acres of irrigated corn are down as Ks continues to trim it's water use...  A little hail in lots of places.....

 

anyhow thanks  and good to here from you.... That is huge production down there when it is right....

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