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too close for comfort
Senior Contributor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

Figures, I'm in the dark again, I didn't know it was over! 

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Brianfo
Frequent Contributor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

I have been on MTs case for a long time, But you have taken the cake for **bleep** of the year. Try to bring something positive to the board. MT does. You just have **bleep** envy. POST SOMETHING THAT BACKS UP YOUR POSITION OF GTFU.

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idalivered
Advisor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

I'm still trying to understand the 52 vs. 53 week export thing??!! 

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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

I sold some corn in the middle part of May, which made me side more with MT, but now that corn dropped 75 cents or so, VR looks better.  However, to consider one or the other the 'winner' only a couple weeks after planting, seems premature, for new crop.  I have an eerie feeling, that pricing new crop could be a real nail-biter, what with such large price swings, based on things like predictions on possible rain, for next week.

Old crop has me more confused than a blind hog in a truffle factory.  The price slowly goes down, but the basis slowly goes up.  It is only June 1st, but I have already sold corn, with a higher positive basis, than at any other time in my life, and that was 2 weeks ago.  Cargill was letting people haul in their June corn, since about May 20th.  Usually, our local Cargill is pretty quick to point out that June corn, is to be delivered in June, but this year, when I was hauling my May corn in, it was me, and maybe 2 other guys until May 21st.  When I asked where all the trucks came from, the guy at the pit said most of it was June corn already.  Never saw that before, either.

From my experiences, I am making two conclusions, which could be, and probably are, wrong.

1) old crop corn supplies are tight, probably more so that the elevators, and USDA wish to admit.

2) While a big new crop is predicted, and perhaps even likely as of right now, any production hiccup, or potential for one, still has the potential for some big rallies, but near perfect weather could tank prices farther.

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DismalScience
Veteran Contributor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

Brian,

 

MT chased anybody who disagreed with his facts off this board.  SS even quit posting for a while. He basically called Buck a dumbass every chance he could.   It made no sense to argue with him until the facts were in.  Old crop at 559 CBOT is fact.  That some of us sold it at more than a buck higher is fact.  And if we did it on the CBOT we can pull it off when the weather scare materializes.  And if we did it on the CBOT then the basis movement hasn't affected our profits. 

 

I am sorry but I didn't like MT's tone so yes I am twisting the blade a bit.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

I'm not sure that we are even at halftime of this game....to say someone has won now would appear to be rather foolish.  Smiley Wink

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

I really get sick of explaining the 53 week thingy.  I really get sick of people that doent even get out a calender and count the weeks.  the first week in the marketing year after sept first is one day...according to the usda one day equals a week.  Count the weeks preceding that until august 31.  Not really hard to do and it doesn't happen every year. 

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

Twist all you want......

15 old crop and 14 new crop is working......

New crop corn is still unfolding...........

Old crop corn has been beaten up in the BOT.....however basis is matching some or all that fall......you can still get 6 cash and some even saying 7......and cash corn did hit 7 before the planters rolled, it did it several times.......

As for buck, our argument was over exports.....wheat and soya have it upgraded sales targets, and shipments are close too......corn is not doing too bad with three months to go......

As for outside influence.......I have never argued that it isn't real.......we saw it last spring and fall.......

As for SS, really......go dig thru his post.....one week he's bullish corn cause we are going to run out.....next week he is bearish cause of all the 90 day july corn in ILL and the EU.......

As for who won or lost....didn't know there was a challange other than the 14 or 164 challange and its too ealry for final results, although I know who I am betting on.......
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farsider
Senior Contributor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

Ones a spec trader and the other a producer, completely different mindsets. Winner? Neither one. Losers? All of us reading and replying to this thread, oh crap!
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Slim123
Senior Contributor

Re: MT vs Buck - who won?

Roaringtiger, I agree with your statement disagreeing with anyone saying this market is over for 12 or 13. I believe most people make up their own minds on when to sell. I read all posts. When posters say general statements like most Illinois farmers planted 90 day corn the 1st of april and last of March and there is 53 weeks to a marketing year, I may not hold there opinions very high after those statements.

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