cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Major corrections to EU and Russian wheat

Russia will be down 1/3 from last year and the EU is back to at least 127 MMT from the upper 130's.

 

Remember the ace in the hole? Keep it - if your fortunate enough to have it.

0 Kudos
5 Replies
sixtysixx
Veteran Contributor

Re: Major corrections to EU and Russian wheat

not gonna lie but I was starting to freak out a bit. What is your thoughts on pricing new crop at this point? thanks

0 Kudos
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Major corrections to EU and Russian wheat

That's a good question and I don't have a really good answer. Wheat is the easiest crop to take a hit in the fall from major increases in planting in the fall - even though prospects can't really be determined. I think the southern Plains are going to plant lots of wheat because it is the cheapest crop and needs the least moisture and will have a nice insurance price set. It will get planted in the dust if need be. On the other hand, corn is a strong competitor for acres in some places domestically and globally.  But the Black Se area - like much of the plains is suited to wheat.

 

On the other hand there are reasons to think wheat will take a bounce some time this fall. But pricing for next year can't be a bad idea. May be the best idea. 

 

Meanwhile D.C. stalls ion the farm bill. This one is going to be good.

0 Kudos
sixtysixx
Veteran Contributor

Re: Major corrections to EU and Russian wheat

thanks for the thoughts Pal. Will most likely make some new sales at 8.25 locally, that with some double crop beans in the teens will be a nice pay day I think, as for old crop I am nervously holding tight....for now. I feel that there will be a large amount of wheat acres put out this fall.

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Major corrections to EU and Russian wheat

Palouser,

 

 do you anticipate wheat substitution for corn & milo usage to be enough to change the normal fall/winter chart for wheat??

----------------------------

 

just comments-----

 

There are nearly as many acres in the southern plains needing to go to wheat as last year-----and again------needing a rain.

 

The description might be "crop of last choice" for large areas, if the ins coverage is there and priced right.  After 2 years of dry land failures it is the only choice.

0 Kudos
pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: Major corrections to EU and Russian wheat

In fact whet is grown all over the earth. Rare to hurt the collective crop too much.

+ high Prices ration .

AUG 2012, WZ3 was 860,

it is 680.

 

wheat is NOt a capital asset, it is a commodity grown to be SOLD,

if somoene is worried gbout the Ruessian wheat ccrop,, you SELL,, into that demand.

 

vs trung to be endlessly bullish, and doing  yourself harm.,