Mark Gold, M to M

[BA Deere]

Tye from Iowa asked "When will be a buying opportunity for corn?"   Mark Gold said `Not yet, if we get to July, good crop coming, it could be $4.50`.   If it rains in Argentina beans`ll be down Monday.  Like Milli Vanilli  sang/lip sync  back in the good ol` days ♪ Blame it on the rain♪ .

Tommy Grasafi on USFR said "Russia won`t invade Ukraine again ... unless we talk nuclear" .   All these gurus talk about buying a cheap 20¢ put or sell and buy a call if you think there`s a black swan out there.

Chip Flory and Davis Michaelsen talked about not counting on dropping natural gas prices affecting nitrogen prices much.    I think it was Josh Linville who worked for Koch who said nitrogen plants always shutting down for repair, new plants no one has the billion$ to plough into one .  

Here`s pure gold, Mark Gold on Market to Market and Market Plus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_fCFaDI4Qc   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfEPNnXqclk 

[rsbs]

Mark is trying to scare folks with the $4.50 scenario, but you never know how low prices will go if there is any threat of a surplus developing, and market priced clearing is needed.

Famous last words are "this time it is different."

If mushroom clouds would show up around the major cities of the world after that Russian gets pushed to the brink, grain would not be worth much at all. And we might end up with two types of people....the dead, and those that wished they were dead.

Really wished that we had leaders right now that loved their children.

[BA Deere]

Yeah Red, the question is, what move in corn has the least path of resistance in a $2 move?   I hate to say it, but to go from $7 up to $9 (feedlots in SW already bidding $9, will they go to $11 or quit?)   there`s a lot of resistance.  I like to get the 8oz Ribeyes at Fareway, they have been $8 for forever, last I bought $9,99 or $20/lb ... that`s Salmon price!   $1.72 fat cattle price, the consumer is going to balk and buy pork at some point and the feedlot isn`t exactly making obscene profits, neither is packer currently.  So, we`ll see.

[roarintiger1]

Mark Pyrite's opinion?    Many times it's been in this name.   But who knows......someday he might be right.   If what he says scares you,  go ahead and sell some.   If the cash is in your bank account, you can quit worrying about the markets.   With CD rates inching higher, you can add to the value of your grain that you have sold.   

[Hobbyfarmer]

15 dollar beans @4.1% = $15.62 next year at this time. Bird in the hand?

Doesn't hurt to hear a contrasting view occasionally.

Be kind to him, we share a birthday, but he is younger.

Many savings and/or money market accts now paying +4% .

The advantage is in this rising interest environment, the money in these accounts rise and the funds are available in three days or less with no penalties.

A CD is locked in for a set period with an interest penalty if you find a need/want for it ahead of maturity. Plus in a rising interest time period like this that CD will look like a bag of lemons after a few pages turn on the calendar.

[BA Deere]

I see oil is up 2.39 overnight and RBOB +8¢.   Oil is floating just above the "Biden put".   If one is going to be a corn bull, you have to be okay with higher gas prices and high fertilizer prices.  Instead of looking at fertilizer cost in dollars per ton, it has to be looked at as "bushels of corn per ton of fertilizer" then it`s not so expensive provided you make sales as you buy.  

Peter Zeihan on with Joe Rogan examines a nuclear threat from Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8CodGWSohI  

[roarintiger1]

Just wondering if the funds began their liquidation of their long positions today like Mr. Gold said they would? Anyone have that information?

[BA Deere]

Roarin`, I think commitment of traders comes out on Fridays, reflecting the previous Tuesday 😀   So, we`ll have to compare this to the report on what comes out Friday.  Then they were spreading, selling beanmeal and buying soyoil. 

Commitment Of Traders Positions as of Jan 3, 2023

View ChartDetails

Commercials - Long / Short

284,335 (-6,423)

395,664 (+4,825)

Non-Commercials - Long / Short

195,320 (+15,577)

46,681 (+457)

Producers - Long / Short

178,397 (-5,772)

357,874 (+6,856)

Swap Dealers - Long / Short

95,358 (-1,734)

27,210 (-3,114)

Managed Money - Long / Short

163,906 (+15,038)

21,042 (+1,418)

Other Reportables - Long / Short

31,414 (+539)

25,639 (-961)

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZSK23