cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

We love him anyway, but uff-dah kind of splash of reality.  China invades Taiwan, Russia invades Ukraine, decent spring moisture  (last summer we lived off morning dew),  inflation probably won`t continue being "a thing".   

See, this inflation deal is just the engine running off ether, Jerome stops squirting the starting fluid in the intake, the motor`ll quit .... I`m afraid.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MH8BOdtUNYY&t=634s   

Mark does say if we get a drought, it`ll be $8 corn and $18 beans though.  I`m in need of a "Sue Martin fix"  hope she`s on next week   🙂

12 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

I didn't find much to take issue with.

The E plants are keeping corn prices respectable around here.

The local unit train loader has railed millions of bu out of here already this fall and is still basically full to the rafters.

I'd rather pay attn to Mark than $30 Sue. (Used to be $8 Sue).

Listening to/watching Sue is entertaining though,  Don't bet the farm on her advice.

0 Kudos
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

How many more times will Mark Gold sell his client’s entire crop? 

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

Mark suggests buying a put on all this corn that the farmer is long on ... or selling and buy a Call.  Not that`s bad advice, but they say that every year about this time.  Apparently funds are net long and could puke out of those very rapidly on any hint of risk off.   Host Paul Yeager is having John (stochastic) Roach on next week who talks about "too many on one side of boat".   "Here" I think there are a lot of empty bins, the coops were busy, farmers got their $5.50 off the combine simply hauling to an elevator a mile away from where they were harvesting and pulled the trigger (they weren`t Alec Baldwins).   

There`s been plenty of dippsy-doos in prices and ample opportunity to sell and have the elevator hold the check until Jan. 1 or buy the Put or take the cash and got to a Steffes Auction and spend too much on something.  🙂

I think China wants to and has to buy, however they`d prefer to not buy from us if they can help it.  They figure on waiting for February and buying from Brazil, but they ain`t dummies either though.   That is beans, but I think corn and beans are a little bit joined at the hip. 

rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

yeah, BA that Steffes auction group got me for a combine in central IA. Local trucker said that by the time I hire a tire truck to take the duals off, and him for trucking and loading, I would better just driving it home, so I just got done doing that. Uff da...two day ordeal, but found gravel just about all the way, but whassup with those narrow IA bridges?

I know more than normal around here didn't bin any corn, hauled it straight in for what they had contracted, or $5. So when and and if the market wants corn, and /or needs corn....I think things can get a little exciting. Still waiting for the $6.25 bid within hauling distance to make any sales.

I didn't see any bunkers of corn, and I did go close to Woden, but not through it so I don't know if the streets there were lined with corn or not.

The farmer I bought the combine from said he had virtually no rain and poor yields, even though it looked like he had A plus soils to work with.

My bet is that the market will come to us, and bid corn up in the spring. Hope I am right!

 

0 Kudos
lsc76cat
Senior Advisor

Re: Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

little easier to sell corn right out of the field when it's under 15%.  Have heard a number of folks in this area say they never combined corn as dry as it was this year.

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

for sure....

That early propane promotion stopped in its tracks and never materialized.

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

Hey Red, did your combine come from the Ft Dodge area?  A farmer from west of there said his corn averaged 108, so it wasn`t gumdrops & lollipops all over.    Yes, Woden put up a lot of tin cans, so they shouldn`t have to put bunkers on the streets again  🙂    You should`ve hauled your combine on Monday salebarn day at Algona, gave `er hell on 169  the DoT kind of stays away out of curtesy on salebarn day   🙂

0 Kudos
rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

BA, my escort vehicle had expired MN license plates so we were very very careful to not attract any attention. Forgot to go to the courthouse and get the December 2022 stickers.

Outside of the narrow bridges, I enjoy my time in Iowa, and wish we could either get annexed there, or by SD. I think 90 percent of MN feels the same.

A comment on your post about Russia, and the Ukraine...China, and Taiwan.....personally I think the fact that America is now occupied by an invasion force of 30 plus million illegals is more of a cause for concern.

I cannot envision any scenario where all of this ends well, or with peace.

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Mark Gold on Market Plus- Bearish

If Russia and China doesn`t act in the next couple years (for obvious reasons) they never were serious about expansionism.  And if invasions took place simultaneously what could be done about it?  Grain embargoes?   Thing of it is, once troops are embedded in an occupied country, you aren`t going to get them out again. 

They all talk about "black swans" and it`s black swans we probably haven`t thought of yet, some might be very positive to holding physical, unpriced grain in the bin.

0 Kudos