Mark Gold on Market Plus

[BA Deere]

"Keep upside open" nice to hear Gurus talking about calls instead of puts  🙂

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phhhYis542k

[wrightcattle]

I feel there's an easy $1 per bu to be made buying cheap out of the money calls out there a ways.

[BA Deere]

Yes, I don`t know if endusers can afford it, but if supply & demand rules of economics haven`t been suspended, this market could go higher and have a longer tail than most realize.

But just thinking out loud here.  i wonder if feeder cattle won`t be taking the hit for the team this year?  Cattle feeders sit at the salebarn paying $1,000 for a 6 weight calf.  Well, if the feedlot has $200 higher feed bill in that calf, all of a sudden their top bid will be $1.30 to make up for the extra feed cost.   The South DeKody rancher that was pulling calves out of snowbanks and mud will just get $200 less for each critter. The feedlot won`t miss a beat, the supermarket will have supply and the consumer will still have $4 hamburger and $13 ribeyes.

[roarintiger1]

Just wondering how many times good old Mark has had his clients sell 2019's corn crop?

[BA Deere]

Yup, sell $4 Dec corn "commission please Cha-Ching!"..."Oops daisy planting delay, better protect the sale with a call, commission please, Cha-Ching!" ...But don`t bet against the American farmer and you won`t go broke selling at a profit.   My question, what price is your breakeven if you raise zero bushels?   Oh I know "this" is  0ne year out of 20, but if you`re on the wrong side of this, especially after 4 lean years, there may not be another 20 years to get back to square one.

[too close for comfort]

Six weeks ago everyone was super bearish now they are all super bullish. Is there another black swan coming?

[BA Deere]

There could be another "black swan" coming...and then "buy puts to protect your position...commission please, Cha-ching!".  Like a paperclip getting bent back & forth until it heats up and breaks.  "The good news is I`m getting $4 for my corn!  Bad news is, it cost me $4 to get and protect it"  Meanwhile corn is $3.30 cash  this fall off the combine.  

Possibly, corn will go to $5 in July but by harvest back down to $3.30.  They guy that contracted for $3.50 maybe will feel bad missing $5, but come fall he`ll still be better off than the flat cash off the combine marketer by 20 cents. 

[roarintiger1]

I  just watched his video.   He first says to sell some corn everyday in the next two weeks and buy a call...........A few sentences later, he says that corn could go up yet 50 cents.   

So which is it Mark?     I think he would be really confused if you put him in a round room and tell him to go pee in the corner.  

[popspoppe]

OK BA I watched his video.  He said to sell now and buy a call for 15 cents to protect the up side.  Which month do I buy?  I looked and 15 cents buys a September call at $5.15 that makes it $5.30 for me to break even.  Maybe that was too close how about December 2019 15 cents buys a $5.50 call now that's $5.65 to break even. March and May 2020 are even worse 15 cents buys $5.60 calls.  July 2020  calls are another 10 cents higher and his 15 cents buys a $5.70 call  now I'm up to $5.85 to break even. Not until Sept of 2020 does it look like there is any "chance" that his plan might work. 15 cents buys a September 2020 call at $5.00.  But that's butting up against 2020 crop production how good is your crystal ball?  Today September 2020 corn is at $4.30 that means you only need a 85 cent rally to break even. What good is the 50 cents he claims going to do us? September 2019 is at $4.58 that takes a 72 cent rally to break even same question.

[BA Deere]

Well, it`s like a bank loan, if you qualify, then you don`t need the money  🙂  The Gurus should`ve been recommending calls when instead they were having you sell $3.80 or $4 Dec corn a month ago.  Then the calls were affordable. Now, "everybody knows".  if you know what everybody knows, it ain`t worth knowing.   🙂

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lin-a2lTelg