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08-03-2017 02:42 PM
Cheapo, we do need a centrally located "Chicago" to set the base price and the basis sort of equalizes it in the local market. But those buying our grain probably roll their eyes at us crying "wolf" all summer and then magically pulling off a record crop in the fall. I don`t know what the genuine carryover is, USDA says it`s +2 Billion bu which makes corn a bargain in this hand to mouth inventory world. If the real carryover is closer to 1 Billion bu. then we are getting ripped off and I think it is and we are. But they can pull that off year after year, I was in a cave tour once and the guide asked "how deep is that water?" it was clear and looked about 18 inches, but it was actually 18 feet..that`s kind of like the carryover, if you can distort the perception, that`s all you need to do to have your own avatar reality. If carryover is really 1 billion instead of 2 billion, the trucks keep getting loaded and sent to town, even though they are getting ripped off on price and 1 billion bushel is enough that the users won`t run out. But it`s a $2 price difference contained within that perception.
The "Chicago" traders have the same numbers to ponder as we do, but most of the year it`s Christmas morning for those that use grains.
08-03-2017 08:31 PM
Besides my disaster, there is some really ***** corn out there. The harvest is already underway in AR-KY-TN and SE Missouri, and there are some garden spots down that way. It will be balls to the wall running the next 2-3 weeks, which translates into corn coming into the pipeline. If you're planning on a rally, you'd better be prepared to hold on to your crop until Spring or Early Summer 2018....and that is a fact.
I'm spending my days coring bins, fumigating, moving things around and making sure I have no quality issues. I have one 12K drying bin available to start harvesting my 30 bpa corn crop....Going to dry it and send it down the road at whatever the price is at harvest and file the claim.. I think I have enough room to store all of my ***** bean crop I'm not willing to take a risk on this aflatoxin prone drought corn which will be worst quality ever, if I can even get it through the snapping rolls.
Finding a qualified renter for next year will be the next goal. 2012 would have been a good time to pull the plug for many. High prices, high machinery values, land at its peak. I think some real pain is about to be unleashed on us for the foreseeable future. Best of wishes to all of you guys who have 380 bushel corn yields coming on, cause you're good fortune is what will get the national average to 165.
Carry on. It's been fun.
08-03-2017 09:48 PM
the sources I'm talking to are saying that they don't feel the crop is as big as everyone thinks......too many "factors"......
the question is what to do........I'm told two things, get a put new, as we head for harvest, then, when you think a bottom,
cash in on the put, and turn around and get a call, and may need to go out to mid next year, to get any surprise.
if there is a surprise, it will be in the spring, when the final harvest numbers are in.
for wheat, the idea is that we look for things to go higher, but it might take a while, I was considering dec, but several
are telling me march, just a few cents more, and gives you much more time value.......this was better than
paying storage....another is saying taking a loan, and put on july board of next year since there is a 70 cent carry.
as eagle eye was saying, big crops have long tails, short crops short tails....
so how do we do this..mid size crops have a midsize tail ?
08-03-2017 10:34 PM
There you go, Cheapo try and capitalize on this time sensitive information that we have and "Chicago" doesn`t. This is only my opinion, but I think as soon as Twitter is rolling with "#very disappointed" " #Well below expectations" that and the Poor Farmer Crop Tour will turn the worm. Too many monkeys on the same end of the teeter-totter.
08-04-2017 07:09 AM - last edited on 08-05-2017 12:13 AM by ishmael
LOL. You're kidding. The crop tour will do what it always does. They will grab ears count, and then come up with some magnificent unbelievable story of how whatever they find will result in yields which will match of surpass USDA. they will then head to the ***** bars and restaurants and marvel at their own idiotic findings. Of course,, some computer will generate a map for them to follow through the areas that had the most ideal growing conditions, grab the biggest ears as close to the road as they can find without having to get dirty or risk getting poked in the eye by a corn leaf and have to head to the ER. It's all just a show, an annual social event. The words potential, will be the key to their findings. Sort of like looking at a grade school athlete and elevate him to Pro status before puberty....
The smart guys my age were planning their exit strategy in 2012. Now it's a bunch of hope to Make Farming Great Again. That will work out just like it is for Trump. There are Creatures in the Swamp....and they control the narrative, the power to move markets, and the goal is enslavement. Right now, all of us are slaves, but don't want to admit it. Buying puts and calls and gambling in the Big Casino won't change our situation. It's a Big Club, and we aren't in it. some will have some great crops and sit back grinning like a Chessie Cat, thinking they beat the system, but your fate is sealed as well...it's just a matter of time before the Wheel of Fortune comes back around to you.
08-04-2017 09:39 AM
Other than Minnesota and northeast Iowa, the best corn may be in the southern states, I don't know. Here's a shot of corn picked in a central Iowa field, last night. Not a lot of ear girth, 16-rows around, but the population was very high. Sorry for the beer can, used it for size comparison. Take a look: