Market Suppression

[illinifarmer]

Here we go again folks, as crop conditions continue to drop nationwide, exports flying off the shelves.  For some unknown reason these traders feel the need to drop prices yet again. Nobody is selling yet they continue to suppress any kind of real time trading.  Curious how in trouble are we? (US grain stock).?  Hypothetically let’s say this ends on the lower end of the spectrum come harvest. 150 bu. Corn 40bu soybeans national avg.  Do these traders cut and run?  I mean we’ve all dreamt of 10$ corn 25$ beans, but they will single handily have destroyed farming industry as a whole.  Wake up CBOT it’s only peoples lives your playing with.

[sw363535]

less transparent than the livestock markets but very similar.

[sdholloway56]

Very good prices and very good subsidized crop insurance, with high guarantees this year.

Could be worse.

[Hobbyfarmer]

#1) Supreme court cleared way for more refinery exemptions

#2) good chances for rain in northern Iowa and South Dakota.

#3) no bullish news that isn't already considered baked in.

#4) historically timeframe of price pullback

[erikjohnson61y]

I know you can't judge the country's crop weather by looking out your window, but in *my* part of South Dakota, yesterday's 60% chance of 1/2 - 3/4 for today turned into mostly cloudy...

The radio station was so excited about the possibility of rain that yesterday they were playing nothing but "rain" songs, from Eddie Rabbit to Eurythmics to whoever wrote a song with the word "rain" in it. Maybe they jinxed us.

But Hobby is right - you need to have all the corn you intend to sell either contracted or delivered by mid-June, and for beans by end of May.  It's OK to keep some back just in case there's an unusual rally, but don't count in it because 9 years out of 10 (or worse) you won't do better, and if you need to move it to make room for new crop, you'll be selling cheap.