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Veteran Advisor

Market To Market 30 March

Is inflation enough of a threat to make it tempting to defer pricing some new crop?

Otherwise, does one take a little nibble here and there on this and any other rally?

The numbers outlook seemed to the panel to be pretty grim.  I think I heard most of them saying get some sales made.

 

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17 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Market To Market 30 March

The one gal brought up the way less corn in Brazil and Argentina and was pretty much blown off.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Market To Market 30 March

I see the highest bid in beans at the des Moines ADM crush plant is for Dec 18

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Market To Market 30 March

With this trying to out guess the market, I`m usually too smart by half....in other words wrong. 

 

But with all these shocker reports, stories of bank examiners cutting off farmers, 3 or 4 yrs below cost of production, whacky weather (it ain`t gonna be a early spring in NCIA, I`ll tell ya that"...so do the buyers know something and dangle carrots to quietly get inventory bought?  Farmers are desperate, that is for sure, with the little stronger than anticipated prices farmers here locally were willing forward sellers.

 

But the caveat is, I always get this feeling of being snookered, but what generally happens is the market takes to ball and goes home for good after a certain amount of teasing.  

 

I`m a deer in headlights again, if you`re not probably selling and defending with a call to keep the upside open is the way to go.   If I did that, I`d be out the cost of the call   Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Market To Market 30 March

All experts say sell.
In times gone by No one predicted beans in the teens any time it happened.
Don't remember $8 corn being forecast before hand either.

How about that 23 dollar wheat thing?
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Honored Advisor

Re: Market To Market 30 March

Little something on another site, I don't totally disagree with...

 


"That round table on tv was the lowest -I was almost getting embarrassed to watch it--I expect better out of market to market-could have gave a better round table at someone's shop with 4 farmers, case of beer and a dog!"

Honored Advisor

Re: Market To Market 30 March

Yes, Mark Gold and his annual "don`t bet against the American farmer" and "better buy some puts and make sales, this was a gift horse.  The American farmer gets one opportunity during the season to sell at a profit and this is it".   But then a drought in Argentina or a few American farmers on the fringe lost their bets and intended acreage went unexpectedly lower.  

 

These analysts make their predictions in a vacuum, but the world doesn`t revolve in a nice order that you can put on a chart.   If you allow yourself 15 minutes to get to work, you go to the car and it has a flat or the road is blocked for an accident, you`re probably not going to make it in 15 minutes.  

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Market To Market 30 March

The consistent theme was sell on a rally.  Whether one likes the format or not, do you agree or disagree with the advice?  There was one or two instances of internal disagreement, but generally they were all bearish.  That in itself has a message.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Market To Market 30 March

I don't need to pay these market advisers for their advice.  I can lose money all by myself.   Smiley Wink

Honored Advisor

Re: Market To Market 30 March

I think fundamentals bat last.  In the analyst`s world of forks and Hagopian lines and massive carryovers, yes if you spend enough on options you too can sell in the top 30%.  They can beat the odds of flipping a coin.   

 

But in Realville, how much of China`s corn went out of condition?  will they need more for their ambitious ethanol program?  What will Argy`s final yield be?  Will the western US continue in a drought, eastern cornbelt wet and northern cornbelt cold?   That stuff doesn`t follow lines on a chart.

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