Market action drives opinion
not the other way around.
I keep reading about how "the trade" is skeptical about USDA numbers.
Gotta wonder if they're not ignoring a pretty good macro agronomic season for granted because the market got over excited about some long term forecasts that didn't pan out. If the price went there there had to be a reason, right?
Along the lines of the mostly deserved abuse that "the analysts" were heaped with here when they were saying to give up hope in the spring, they are pretty darm good at talking out of both sides of their mouths. There must be something there, otherwise I would have sold the highs, no?
That's why I'm repelled by the thought of being an analyst or broker. I may have an opinion and I may have to change it 180 degrees tomorrow. Having to defend my own sagacity is a steep impediment to doing that.
One long term advisor who I've watched over the years is often right but he's a master at pretending he wasn't when he clearly was, and moving on. There has to be something wrong with you to be able to do that.