Market's job, making everybody wrong

[hardnox604008]

Producers who had previously "good" sales near winter highs- blue

Producers who made panic sales in the summer hole - purple

Producers who haven't sold- waiting for 6 and 12.

End users- forced to jump for coverage at levels that sharply limit margins in a lot of enterprises

Speculators- the most money came in near the highs?

CME Group, people selling funds and ETFs etc.- still got commissions on all.

[BA Deere]

What`s fun to watch is how supposedly smartest guys in the room advisors were so dead balls wrong, are now acting like nothing was wrong in telling clients to sell, sell it all a couple monthes ago.They now try to dig up every piece of bearish info in a last ditch effort to vindicate themselves. Did any of them learn the lesson, that you can`t acurately call a 190bu national yield on the 4th of July while sipping mint julips on your yacht in Boca? ......Prolly not.

[jrsiajdranch]

NOXIE my dad always said the purpose of the board is to seperate you from your money!  I think they did alot of seperating recently. JR

[hardnox604008]

Hi JR,

What's your guess on a California dairy BE with $5 corn?

Thanks, h

[Palouser]

Anyone who has decided the outcome of any marketing year and acts accordingly before the year is over is missing the point. Anyone who decides how the market 'will' act, using any formula, will probably be disappointed. Anyone who thinks the market 'should' act is setting themselves up. Markets have no end. One can keep track of physical trends and look to the future to see how events may affect those trends if they continue. One has to watch to see if the threads continue and which can become significant.  The significant threads need to be compared to determine influences that will possibly define the future direction of the market as announced every day. Futures are not very important in defining the future of grains.

The market is a story - not a conclusion.

Look to see how much room there is for a 'twist' in the plot. The big opportunities lie there.

[jrsiajdranch]

Nox they are already ther. AMS reports carloads at the equivalent of 5.30/ bu. It ain't good to be in the golden state but then again they seem to just keep rolling.  so It probably will help those boys.  Sucks to be me tho'JR

[idalivered]

A market guy on the yankton radio station used to call it "run by professionals, financed by amateurs".

[dapper7]

col. jon phillips. quite a guy. d7

[time:thetippingpoint]

That is simply and excellent post Palouser. Dead on.

[jrsiajdranch]

Time where do you see things goin? JR