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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Market to Market gang on report

Ted Seifert was explaining how USDA shifted numbers around to ensure we won`t run out of old crop beans "120 million bushel line in sand".    I wish I could "shift around the balance so my checkbook wouldn`t run out of money  Smiley Happy

Right now off the combine here new corn is $4,75, beans $12 I could live with corn peeling off 75¢ and $2 off beans and have $4 and $10 and not kicking myself for not contracting.   But it seems you either have to be in the "$3 corn camp" or the $8 corn camp.  I jokingly refer myself as "greedy" but I actually don`t want prices to fall out of bed. But either the bears or the bulls will be correct this fall, can`t there be a "animal in the middle" where you stay in business?   I`m not a bull or bear (but I hope the bulls are right)  I`m a feisty Chihuahua.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kI2Mb7K-mM8

Bared Teeth in Dogs: Aggression or Smiling?

 

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13 Replies
rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Market to Market gang on report

BA, the comment I would make is that it is a whole lot easier selling $3 corn in a $3 corn world, than it is selling $4 corn in a $5 or $6 world.

Been there, done that.....tough sledding when you have corn sold low, and the inputs go high.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Market to Market gang on report

Hey Red,  I would like to be a free agent as long as I can to take advantage of a $6...or $10 corn world if that`s the case. Heck of it is it`s probably either going to be $6 or $3, if I have a good crop I can live with $4.   We`re living in a world where Gamestop stock goes to $400 and Bitcoin to $60,000.  I really hate signing a contract saying I`ll deliver $4.75  corn 100 bushel per acre, all before my seed is in the shed. 

In 2008 we were fixin` the get a good kick at the "inflation football", helicopter Ben pulled it away and I`ve been laying on my back from 2014 until 2020 and the ball is still 50 yards from the uprights.  But this time is different!   Smiley Happy  Congress passes $2 trillion bills right and left, we`re giving $1400 to prisoners.  This time we gotta have inflation, right?

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: I confess, I've booked a bit of corn ....

I confess, I've booked a bit of corn on the way up, the last chunk at $4.93 but take a look at the most recent drought monitor.  It's dry here, and if it stays like this, I'll be planting corn soon, way sooner than I ever have before just to use what soil moisture I have before it disappears.

drought map 4-6-21.png
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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: I confess, I've booked a bit of corn ....

$4.90 ain`t bad Rick, but I realize you guys out east are 50¢ or more higher that us.  I`m just one of those that if they offered me $8 for new crop, I`d ask "okay, what`s the catch?  No thanks, I`ll take my chances"  sometimes i`m the bug, sometimes I`m the bumper.

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clayton58
Veteran Advisor

Re: I confess, I've booked a bit of corn ....

Rick what does that drought monitor pic have to do with you and your area?  I thought you were in New York?  Can be a lot of difference between New York and the western half of the country 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: I confess, I've booked a bit of corn ....

That drought map is speaking to corn acres planting intentions.  It may be signaling corn aces are too high and wheat acres may have a small come back.

Adding 10 million acres to wheat would have very little affect on wheat.....  so low on acres, but at this point a big effect on corn.

especially if they have driven their insurance down with a couple years of claims.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: I confess, I've booked a bit of corn ....

Eric Snodgrass has a long range forecast that looks like midwest is in for a dry summer.  Eric will be the first to tell you how fluid forecasts can be, especially the longer range ones.  The potential for drought is above average, what makes 2021 different is we aren`t going in with a full moisture charge.  The one thing bears, bulls and Chihuahuas agree on is a trend yield on acres will be needed to satisfy demand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWxgdp2Al34

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lsc76cat
Veteran Advisor

Re: I confess, I've booked a bit of corn ....

I must confess that I haven't watched the drought map religiously but this is the first one I've seen for a long time that took our area of SCMN out of the yellow.   We added some tile last fall and there was water at the outlet right away in a field fairly well tiled already.  Ran all winter.  Just lucky I guess.  But then we had about 8% if acres drown last summer.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: I confess, I've booked a bit of corn ....

A big chink of the yellow disappeared this week. Dryer and cooler is 1994. Dryer and warmer is 2011, already too wet in most areas to be 2012. As usual, record yields or record bust is still on the table, as it always is on April 11th :-)