Marketeye-Brazil February 8

[marketeye]

At 3:05pm:

The president of the Show Rural in Cascavel, Parana says 2-3% of the state's soybean crop has been harvested.

Initial yields are 3.6 metric tons per hectare, versus 3.2-3.3 tons per hectare last year. And last year was above average. So, this year is better. The state's crop is made, we're told. Farmers are excited.

Sales, as of January 15, 25% of Parana's new-crop was sold on the cash market. This is higher than a 15% average sold. In Mato Grosso, over half of the new-crop is already sold.

Because farm-sizes are smaller in the state of Parana, fewer farmers forward price vs. larger farms in Mato Grosso.

More later.....

Mike

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CASCAVEL, Parana(southern Brazil)--I remember now just how difficult it can be reporting internationally. I'll spare you the technical difficulty details and get right to what I'm learning in Brazil.
First, here are the latest harvest numbers from Mato Grosso, as of February 3. Farmers have harvested 17.3% of a total 6.4 million hectares planted. So far, yields are averaging 55 bags/hectare, above an expected 50 bags per hectare.
Also, total Mato Grosso soybean production is estimated at 13.2 million metric tons.

Though harvest is getting fired up north of us in Mato Grosso, many farmers are waiting for drier weather to get their combines out.

DAY 1
So, what do you do when you can't get into the field? That's right, go to a farm show. And that is a universal thing it appears.
The Crop Expedition by Gazeto do Povo newspaper, my host here, found many farmers at the Show Rural in Cascavel, a city in southern Brazil. Over five days, 160,000 people will attend this show. And, visitors from 12 countries will be here including groups from the U.S.
In general, the farmers' attitudes are joyful, with a booming Brazilian economy, favorable farm prices and an expected record soybean crop.
Oilson Miguel Vargas, farms 1,800 acres near the show. He purchased a combine and a tractor, while visiting the show Monday.
"I have sold 50% of my new crop, didn't hit the peak of the market, but am very satisfied."
Vargas add, "I will use these higher prices to buy equipment that can help me introduce higher technological equipment into my operation.

more on the way…..

[tim7781]

good to here from u i was waiting for updates since i saw u left country

[jec22]

Maybe I should buy John Deere stock.  The forecast looks like they will have lots of time to buy machinery in the next ten days.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/sports/tenday/BRXX3916?role=

Hope you get a chance to get lots of pictures.

[marketeye]

I have a lot of photos. I will be posting a slideshow soon. Thanks for being patient. A lot of rain today in the state of Parana. So, no early harvesting here today. But, if it keeps raining, into the end of the month, the farmers will start to get concerned about the quality of the soybeans.

Mike

[Canuck_2]

Hi Mike, enjoy your trip. I enjoy your reports.

When I checked the weather link posted above my first thought was it is not good for beans that are ready to harvest.

Rain and cloudy with temps around 30C spells high humidity to me and that does not leave good quality beans sometimes.

They will be hoping for dry weather for sure.

[floydboy]

One should always recall the part of the world that we are dealing with. The link was a forecast for Mato Grosso, an area where normal rainfall for February ranges from 8.5 to 10.50 inches. For some areas, that is better than a third of an inch per day, or over 2.5 inches per week. I would call the forecast shown as pretty typical for that area for this time of year, not abnormally wet.

[oncearound]

would be really nice to see a balanced review of the Brazilian Ag Sector instead of the regular view through the "rose coloured" glasses most all American Ag reporters use?

an article just released today in Brazil.....................

"Mato Grosso farm debt hits $1.2 billion...... Governor pleads for relief as bank repossession of machinery.,,,etc of 1000+ state farmers late on debt"

http://www.sonoticias.com.br/agronoticias/mostra.php?id=40963

[marketeye]

Oncearound,

I spoke to a Brazilian reporter that has been covering agriculture here for quite awhile. She says that story resurfaces from time-to-time. The bank threatens to take the equipment from the farmer, the farmer eventually gets it back in most cases, sometimes not. But she admits that she hasn't heard this debt problem for awhile.

Personally, the farmers we have visited in the state of Parana, and at those at the farm show that come from all around Brazil, especially the smaller farmers now receiving social program monies, say they are paying down debt with the higher profits in the recent years.

There doesn't appear to be a debt crisis here. I could be wrong, but I'm getting my shoes red, my pant legs red, and almost speaking full Portuguese sentences, and I'm not hearing debt crisis stories. In fact, I'm seeing new blue and yellow equipment in these farmers' sheds.

Just a few thoughts,

Mike

[oncearound]

Mike, thanks for the update...........southern Brazil is much more established, much closer to exports & imports than the expansion areas of the north. the story i linked to was out of MT, the #1 soya state.

just like in the States, Brazil is a big area and just because one sector & area of Ag seems duly viable today? perhaps that trend does not necessarily stretch across all other areas of Ag and in fact it never does

thus is why i made the remark, cause most articles written & reported by American reporters nearly never show the downsides of Brazilian Ag, we only get the gloss? we hardly ever hear of the "landless workers" protests and shutting down of roads...etc......Lula with his Union background has spread the wealth and smoothed the social unrest somewhat, and now his hand picked successor will continue this trend. but da Silva lost in big Ag States like MT in his last election because of such tactics. i have been through Brazil & Arg several times, i have seen the downsides and they are as real today as they have been in the past.

[deerguy]

once,  i think you are on to something.  iwas in brazil 41 years ago and it is a big place, i liked to never, got out of the place.  land was  cheap then, i think 25 cents an acre in the interior.  a dictator ran it and i,m not sure if you could really own land for real.