Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

[Mizzou_Tiger]

so I see Ray Grabanski has posted an article (or someone did and his name is all over it) that the NAT AVG corn yield is going to come in at 170 and change.

you tell ole Ray G that if he has any brass left in those bags of his, and he truly believes the nat avg is 170 and change then I am up for a wager if he is

which I would think he would be, seeing as he (or someone) posted/printed this garbage.  and I would think if they or he is brazen enough to post it then they outta believe in it enough to wager on it.  that or its bad journalism on their part and he is just flat lieing.

I mean I guess that could be the case.  just trying for attention and doesnt actually believe in what he prints.  course that could be bad for business if his customers find out hes spewing garbage he doesnt believe in.

so heres the wager

$1000 charity donation plus a steak dinner.

If the final NAT AVG for corn in the Jan report is 170.30 or more then Ray wins and I will cut a check for $1000 in the name of whatever 4-H or FFA organization he would like and buy Ray a steak dinner.

If the final NAT AVG for corn in the Jan report is 170.29 or under then I win, and Ray cuts a $1000 check in the name of whatever 4-H or FFA organization I so choose and Ray buys me a steak dinner.

What do you think?  Think he has the brass to do it or is he selling lies?

[rayjenkins]

so, Mizzou.....are you willing to offer the same terms using your 12.2 byn estimate you have been putting out for several weeks...??

I'm ready to sign up if "you have the brass"

Ray J

[BA Deere]

Well if Tiger is right with "12.2" I be able to afford steak everyday, if Ray Grabinsky is right with "170" i`ll be eating Ramen noodles for the next 5 years.  So, for my own nutritional requirements I hope MT is right  🙂

[NDf]

MT Ray J makes a good point put your money where your mouth is.

!70 is way to high and your 12.2 is to low. Ray G yield model for corn   seems always to be too high last year if my memory is correct theywere predicting 176 at this time.

[IllinoisSteve]

 Here we go again.  It is that time of the year when the bets get thrown out when people don't fall in line with what Tigger thinks the crop is.  I will go on record saying that I think 170 is a little outrageous but hey everyone is entitled to their opinion.  Nobody needs to be outraged by it.  MT just needs to start buying the board if he is so sure this crop is as bad as he thinks. 

[Mizzou_Tiger]

"This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing's Research Department."

I don't charge people to here me talk. Ray does. Also don't pay advertisement to try and get people to pay me so they can hear me talk. Ray does.

I also have skin in the game. Not sure if ray does or not, but obviously priority is selling pooh on paper as putting out a 170.3 number given the obvious issues is very telling

I know my 12.2 is low in the eyes of the USDA. They won't print below a 12.6 and likely will have heartburn at 12.8. Regardless of the truth. Past January reports tell us that. Go look at the last 3 January reports and come previous year numbers to current year for a YOY summary. They are all tweeked. Acres and bushels.

You telling me that Rays 170.3 and my 12.2 are the same is like saying it's ok for the media to report slanted and bias propaganda to satisfy an agenda and it's not ok for someone that's directly affected by said agenda to call BS on it

Sorry. But it's not the same. I don't know what Rays final bushels tally looks like. But I'm guessing with a 170.3 he's gotta be at 13.8

So I'm at 12.2 and he's at 13.8. That puts 13 even smack in the middle.

At 13.8 he's bearish. At 13 or 12.2 that's bullish. So my 12.2 number might be low but it's still on the side of bullish just like 13. And much different than a bearish 13.8

Do we slide below 13. That's a moral question for the USDA. If they are true to the final numbers then yes which makes Rays stance wrong. While it doesn't make my number right it certainly lends credence to someone with skin in the game calling BS on someone that's selling propaganda off the backs of the American farmers.

[rayjenkins]

tell you what.......I will give you 300 million bushels......take it to 12.5 byn by the Jan 16 report

?????????

[IllinoisSteve]

I wouldn't worry too much Ray. He misses the crop by at least a billion bushels most years. I have to admit that I think we could be a little below 13.2 but the fact that he is at 12.2 makes me think we have a good chance to finish at 13.2 or above.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves yet

I wanna see if Ray G takes me up on the wager

As for Ray J. You and I both know they will not print a 12.5. No way no how. They won't do it. The lowest they likely print is 12.8 and the use the mysterious 300M and tinker with things a year later to get there. 12.6 maybe but even then it's a stretch for em. I have been very open that I am at 12.2 but know they won't print it.

As for IL Steveo. 13.2 isn't going to happen so if Ray G doesn't bite I might entertain an over under 13.2 charity wager.

[timetippingpt]

Why do you spend so much time on crop size? It is one of three components of price and frankly is the least important.

Why the fascination with corn? The S&D for beans is far worse after the acreage impacts and the El Nino likelihood of messing up SA this winter.

The trade is expecting 164.7 and has priced fall cash corn at 3.70 or less. Second highest yeild in history and 13 bu or 8% above the 12 year average (I use 12 years for lots of good reasons that no one cares about). That is a VERY lofty expectation, especially with the moisture forecast. The surprise might be just how little that will be delivered. Local guy called yesterday wanting to rent bin space. Farmers aren't dumb anymore.

The trade is expecting 44.8 beans. That is probably the real story. 2.7 over (6.5%) the 12 year average. Now that is a bogus expectation given any review of the facts of the growing season.

The POINT. There is simply very little reason for a farmer to be afraid of further dramatic price declines. Sure, the USDA can print any dream today but in the end, the TIME for further declines should be passed. Never any guarantees but S&D is pretty well in balance and we are years from the high, price is at 25% of the range or so. Might as well wait and see if the bears are truly exhausted 🙂