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Senior Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

I don't remember Rays number for beans but I'm sure it was stupid high

So if he wants to go there that's fine

Heck I'll take both wagers. One on his corn number and one on his bean number.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

Mizzou........got to say, you are a SEVERE disappointment to me

 

guess we found out your "brass" is tarnished

 

and don't  give me that "they won't print it " crap.....I went through that several years ago with a southern Minnesota guy who claimed I had the power to have NASS change the yield number for NW Iowa crop district when he lost his bet and reneged on it.

 

Ray J

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Honored Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

Part of the shell game ............... keep your eye on the crop size cup and ignore the demand cup.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

Ray...nice to see some emotion out of you :-)

 

I feel that MT's point about them not printing it is born out by the history and the way they do the estimates. Because most of their work really is boots on the ground statistics, and statistics cannot change as fast as the real world does, it is highly unlikely that the NASS numbers capture the extent of things until we get into the Jan report. It is just the math of how things work based upon NASS procedures. He might want to imply it is a conspiracy, but really it is just math. NASS estimates in flood years are always high at the beginning and fade throughout the year.

 

The big kicker will be when feed use goes up 5% to allow for feeding all this junk crop we are going to have in 1/2 the country. 6 Bil bu of low test weight high FM corn will make a difference when you only have a 8% carryout in the first place.

 

While I still think MT's dreams of another crop failure are ill-advised, the end-user better not risk it. $5 corn and $12 beans are becoming more likely every day. And, MT is right, NASS won't print the numbers that way until Oct at the earliest but more likely Jan.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

Time.....for the record....the wager was based on what numbers are published in the Jan 16 final crop report

 

so there is plenty of time for the govt to get numbers more in line as the data becomes more accurate through balance of the year

 

Ray J

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Senior Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

LMAO Ray --  " guess we found out your "brass" is tarnished  "   Still LOL - But Misery - He could have said they were Rusted - lol   

 

Ray --Maybe you should have beted him one of them World Famous Hambugers you talk about - then maybe he  might have bit - Smiley Happy

 

Boy what a pretty day it is here in East Central Indiana !

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

Same here ECIN....beautiful

 

this is what I get for trying to get involved with one of those "all hat/no cattle" guys

 

I do my best to keep you boys entertained!!

 

Ray J

Esteemed Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

Good point Ray...not much reason for the NASS boys to be high on the crop size in January. People forget that a low crop higher price saves the gov a fair chunck of change and in no way hurts the consumer.

 

Ray, what yields are you using?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

this is MY opinion only

 

US     164

 

IA       185

 

how much corn will Indiana have to import to get to Sept 1, 2016??

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Senior Advisor

Re: Marketeye, Marketeye, Marketeye

Ray Said -- so there is plenty of time for the govt to get numbers more in line as the data becomes more accurate through balance of the year 

 

1,0000% right --- The Gov can't lower the yield to much today as it would go against there good to Exl . to much - maybe by Feb they will have it close -

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