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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Marketeye.......question for tomorrow...........

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/wear-perks-up-grains-drop_2-ar17165

 

Do the traders really believe the crap that is written in this article...............and if so why?????????/

 

A lot of people better wake up real quick............this crop is going backwards very fast on short acres and short growing season.........

 

Storm totals of 7 inches and 4 week totals of 16-20 inches are not good on young corn or soya.............and the south is burning up beyond repair..............

 

We have had a similar weather pattern like this for several springs in a row in this area, and I know what it ended up meaning in the fall...........if this pattern is across a much larger area with stress already induced we could be looking at a nat avg at or under last year real quick...........I am still holding out for 156, but at this point I think that is top end.........we could lose 4-6 real quick........

 

Just curious what the trade thinks..........because we knock too much off this market there will be no question demand is hungry.......and old crop 11 corn will be worth more than old crop 10 corn was/is.............

 

Unless everyone ignores this problem till late summer or fall and we get a knee jerk reaction to have the government intervene........I would be keeping an eye on the markets and hear to DC........

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9 Replies
Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Marketeye.......question for tomorrow...........

And according to a news release by the Canadian Wheat Board there will  not be any extra wheat or barley produced in Canadian Prairie Provinces.

Fewer tonnes forecast for this year than last.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5i8vUfEsjSHVa8p84FUxg3nk2WbPw?docId=7147...

 

Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis for the Canadian Wheat Board, said Tuesday that somewhere between 2.4 million and 3.2 million hectares of farmland will go unseeded in the West, mostly in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Marketeye.......question for tomorrow...........

Now`s the time to remember the old saying "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".   It`s like an auction where the auctioneer sells "choice" of 10 wagons, the winning bidder may take 1 or all.  Sometimes the last 1 or 2 wagons sell for alot more than the previous ones.  I saw a 60 Minutes piece on computer stock market trades that happen so fast that it`s an unfair advantage, seems if the computer says "sell" it does so instantly.  I would imagine something similar happens with fund grain trading.  If the market was focused on fundamentals  prices would be high enough for insured rationing, afterall this spring we were told that we needed every square foot of 93 million acres and TRENDLINE yields or better.  Here we are in the middle of June and neither look possible.  The host is clicking the lights on and off saying "the party`s over, you don`t have to go home, but you can`t stay here".    Throw in things like early frost, more flooding, more drought a prudent person shouldn`t be whistling through the graveyard.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketeye.......question for tomorrow...........

BA Deere,

 

Many traders are talking about yields. What are the yields going to be? We can talk about acreage until we are blue in the face, but it's really about the yields. It almost seems like the market is looking past the June Acreage Report, looking past the floodwaters, looking past the upcoming July and August weather and only cares about yields.

 

Mike

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Marketeye.......question for tomorrow...........

Hi Mike, I`m suffering from backyarditis, haven`t been far from home.  Was told NC Ia is the garden spot, if that is the case, uff-dah.  Corn was planted mostly mid May, sulfur deficient. Normally should be close to covering 30" rows, not this yr. Talked to a guy yesterday that says Algona is the garden spot, of course that isn`t too far from Woden  Smiley Happy  One thing to consider is, if  alot of "fringe acres" didn`t get planted, the national yield might not go down alot if it`s only "cream acres" counted.  I`m just saying this fall will be interesting.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Marketeye.......question for tomorrow...........

Mike, what is happening right now will trump July and August weather in terms of yield.........especially if it keeps it up.......if i recall last year we had several gardens spots, many were located in areas that are under water this year..........get my point........

 

as for acres.........how come in March we were talking 93M and now 90M............we suddenly don't need 93M..........if we don't need them then why all the fuss in March.............even at 150 nat avg thats 450M bushel............I would imagine thats a very important 450M bushel..........

 

but whatever, rain makes grain.........another 4 inches here last night on top of 3 weeks of rain..........that must mean we will hit 300.........

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peaceman
Frequent Contributor

Re: Marketeye.......question for tomorrow...........

Mizzou,

 

It seems you are convinced you are correct.  You are constantly cheer leading for the market to go up.  Why aren't you buying corn as hard as you can.  I am glad you are posting but it kind of starts to seem like a broken record. 

 

I have been growing corn long enough to know that when you give up on the farmer and you are sure corn is going sky high you are usually wrong.  Everyone is so bullish.  I worry about how healthy this market is.

 

P.S.   The dryland wheat is better than expected.  People thinking 10 are getting 20 and 20 are getting 40.  Poor Irrigated wheat later in the week and the good wheat next week.  There is some summer fallow dry wheat that never got rained on that is cutting close to 50.  Granted there are many acres zeroed.

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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketeye.......question for tomorrow...........

Mizzou the corn belt as a whole seems to be doing better for the time being. Even here in the eastern corn belt a lot of work got done and the crop is looking better. I think it will be a given that places here in the Indiana, Ohio region will have lower yielding wet corn, but most of the crop got planted. In my backyard corn that has been sidressed is looking great but the corn that hasn't looks a little sickly. Soybeans are off to a slow start for most but they too are looking good despite rough planting weather.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Far enough.......

do you guys have any updates from last year about this time..........just curious.........its all relative.........seems a lot of talk of great crops last year, early on.........didn't pan out too well, that is why I am asking.........becausing using terms like zeroed out for wheat yields.............sickly for corn in June and slow start for soya in June does not scream great balls of fire........

 

i do agree, a lot of growing season left...........but lets just say I am wrong.........and we do punch 158 on 91M planted........thats a 13.2 crop..........basically at or under demand...........

 

so question to you guys or whomever.............would you agree that those three figures are probably about as good as we can do this year for production?............and remember we could see a number less than 91M on June 30th...........and there is a bunch of water getting ready to slam the MO river basin levees for, o about 2 months, that will not be figured into planted, that will come out of harvested.............all this said, IF the best we can hope for is break even...........what are the odds we don't break even...........and if we don't break even carryout shrinks........and remember they have already lowered demand a couple of times........and those carryout numbers are still historic..........

 

just laying the facts, maybe I need to quit cheerleading..........

 

 

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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Far enough.......

I think you are right for the most part. I don't see corn falling below $5 for a long while. Unless the entire corn belt sees an inch of rain a week until September I don't think these high prices are going anywhere.

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