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Senior Advisor

Marketeye

How's that "called to the carpet" round up of the "pros" coming

I would love to hear from the FC stones and allendales of the world

Be interesting if they still think 174 and 14.5 are possible. As little as two weeks ago they did

Let's hear it

Do they stick by their ignorance or do they have some grand excuse and escape route for the crow they are about to eat
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Contributor

Re: Marketeye

I've done some traveling this year Mizzou. Not too much but some. Indy to Brookfield to Desmoines to Dyersville to quad cities back to Indy. Then just this weekend from Indy to basically Ottawa Illinois via champaign then came back via I80 to 65S.

Seems the guys North of 80 have a valid argument against this high yield guess. I didn'tget too far into Northern Iowa, but what iI saw wasnt anything as good looking as south of 80. Pale green lacking N and had too Much moisture early. Saw the same in extreme NE Illinois this weekend once I got close to Indiana border. NW Indiana looked like NE Iowa. Pale green with too much moisture.
Did see amazing looking stuff all along 74/72/36 from Indy to Northern Missouri.
I'll be back in Brookfield labor day weekend so I'll get another good look at the 74/72/36 trail and wont be rushed and plan to talk to a few guys along the way.
Will say that by the looks of stuff a few weeks ago that if northern Missouri gets a few more rains they look to be getting ready to harvest a near recorn crop IMO....
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Senior Advisor

Re: Marketeye

pretty much the best crop in the US is along that corridor.  all the rain has punched that section all year.

 

that said, get up on a grainleg or in the air............MO will have a good year, but its got holes that is going to pull it down from a record..........there is a section in NCMO that punches south that missed a fair bit of this summer rain, and was firing hard a month ago............and some areas have had too much rain, ie my backyard, 14-16 inches in June is never good, luckily we had 8 plus in July and around 4-5 so far in August which has kept things going from the early damage...........we will have 100 bushel swings in fields in my backyard...........those inconsistancies and holes do not make for a killer crop.............and lets face it, MO is on the bottom of the corn list, so our crop barely moves the needle anyway......

 

 

IL has a good crop coming in areas...........but the cream is off the top..............I think people forget how hard it is to keep that yield monitor above 220...........and NIL had a monster crop the last few years, they will not this year, SIL also brought it home late last year and this year will be good but not great..........so all in all, IL is no better than last year.........and the USDA number that is being used would suggest a monster, so IMO IL is overstated...........

 

IA is mosiac of issues..........SW to NE goes from good to bad.........storm damage too........some areas too much water, others not enough..........I think the thing many are overlooking...........in 2013 the crop went in after the damage was done with the crazy spring rains and some of that ground that did get planted late was able to raise a pretty darn good crop because of a nice fall...........in 2014 many of the areas where planted and then the rain and storm damage came...........just too many holes and inconsistancy..........so IMO IA is WAY overstated..........

 

IN, dont have a good handle, other than its probably going to come up short, same with OH.........so IMO they are probably overstated........

 

NE...........too much storm damage, dry pockets, and believe it or not, not enough heat..........they will have a decent crop but no bin buster.........

 

KS has a pocket of good and a big slug of stuff that went south a month ago...........I was suprised to see corn being chopped 2 weeks ago and a lot of corn that was burnt up and done...........again, KS is a drop in the bucket, but no record there.......

 

MN, a mess and is on frost watch...........IMO its WAY overstated.......

 

Dakotas, dont have a good handle, but would say similar to MN to some degree.......

 

AND SOMETHING NOT TALKED ABOUT MUCH, BUT.................most people dont understand that corn that is behind will try and "HURRY UP" to finish.........this bascially short changes and shortens up the grain fill period.........usually from around R4-R6..........thats why late corn can have horrible test weight and shallow kernal depth...........cool temps at night and warm temps during the day is one thing...........HOWEVER most people dont understand cool temps at night and during the day can be just as troublesome as too much heat.............

 

TAKE HOME POINT

 

Records are not born from inconsistancy..........too much rain early..........not enough heat units late...........AND PEOPLE HAVE TO GET THIS THRU THEIR HEAD...............we dont have to kill this crop to still make carryout come in tight..........its going to be a nice crop, just not record............and our balance sheets and expectations for the last few years has been perfection and records.........with our usage we should be paying $5 for corn with a 2B carryout............instead of $3 with a 1B carryout.......

 

and that is why I pretty much despise these "market gurus"..............

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Marketeye

Mizzou--sounds like you are long in the market.  I just love it when one talks their positiion.

 

I took a car trip recently as well:  From Florida,  South Carolina,  Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, Iowa and Nebraska AND BACK.  Been observing crops in the field for many, many years.

 

The best crops I have EVER seen--everywhere.  Not one bad field ANYWHERE.  FC Stone, Allendale, Informa, etc., etc., are right on.  At least as big as they predict, probably bigger. 

 

I know, farmers are always hoping for a short crop, just not in their areas, and getting a good price. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Marketeye

Did you just drive at night?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Marketeye

Vandy. You see the latest pic from tour this AM. Blank ears on corn that looked fine. Tag line was didn't know it till husked back ear

Get out of the car you jackleg
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Honored Advisor

Re: Marketeye

Hobby, that was awesome.........

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Advisor

Re: Marketeye

I don't like reports,estimates, etc.  when the wall street journal reports this it WILL affect the markets  http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-farmers-are-up-to-their-ears-in-corn-1408318910

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Senior Contributor

Re: Marketeye

Mizzou--

Then you should double or triple your long position, if you believe what you are preaching.  For the record, I am short beans, long corn, @$11 and $4 respectively.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Marketeye

LMAO Hobby,

Vandenplas, don't know what part of Ky you drove threw, but sure was not threw here, Bowling Green or Hopkinsville.
The boys around Bowling Green started corn harvest last week, running in the 65-75 bu range, around Hopkinsville reports of beans dying in the field - burnt up.

Here I think corn we will be 45 to 60 bu. less than last year, if not more!
Beans are still a big ? but did receive 1.5 inches of rain yesterday
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